The Hindu Business Line : Arabian Sea too joins party as monsoon re-advances

The monsoon has launched itself back into a resurgent phase with a new low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea basin joining a counterpart across the peninsula and over the Bay of Bengal.

The new `low' is located off the north Konkan and adjoining south Gujarat coasts. A rain-driving offshore trough from this system runs down to the Kerala coast, says the National Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

HEAVY FALLS

This is expected to cause widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Konkan and Goa (including Mumbai) and madhya Maharashtra. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also likely over south Gujarat, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telengana and the Andaman Islands.

With rain clouds drifting into west and west-central India, the monsoon withdrawal process seems to have been all but derailed. According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, the withdrawal did not make anticipated progress during the week just ended.

`RE-ADVANCING'

Instead, he saw ample prospects for the `re-advance' of monsoon currents into the mainland over the next five to seven days. Numerical model runs had shown one or more monsoon depression forming during this period.

The present `low' in the Bay is predicted to deepen, perhaps to an important monsoon depression. This would happen over the next three to five days. Mr Andrews had also predicted the formation of the `low' in the Arabia Sea basin.

BAY `LOW' SHIFTS

The `low over west-central Bay has shifted to a perch over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and neighbourhood on Sunday. Under its influence, widespread rains with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

The outlook throws light on what Mr Andrews describes as an unwanted aspect of monsoon weather: Excessive rains. The `low' drifting northwest from the Bay together with the Arabian Sea `low', with its associated offshore trough, is predicted to cause highly focused west-side rains, especially in western Maharashtra, each day from Sunday through next Thursday.

He saw excessive rains, measuring even up to 50 cm, falling at some place along the west coast. Prospects are good for a late surge next week in rains over the northeast and the far north, including scattered thunderstorms along the southern slope into Pakistan.

A northward thrust of moisture has been indicated from the east, he said. This is because a `low' is shown to veer northward into the Himalayas.

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