The Hindu Business Line : Arabian Sea `low' under watch for storm signs

The persisting `low' in the Arabian Sea is being kept under watch for signs of intensification into a tropical storm, even as a counterpart system in the Bay of Bengal lay centred over north-west Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.

At least two international models - the US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) - tend to prognosticate a flare-up in weather close to the Mumbai coast around or just beyond the weekend.

MAY BACK OUT

This will result as the system expectedly backs out from its current position over east central Arabian Sea to move towards the west coast. While NOGAPS sees the system making a landfall by Saturday, the ECMWF gives time until Monday next for the event to take place.

However, Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts said it was not usual for similarly placed systems to re-curve and impact the coast.

He cited forecasts by a few models, which suggested that the system would only move further into the west, out into the open Arabian Sea.

RAIN TO EAST

Meanwhile, the well marked `low' over north-west Bay of Bengal, off the north Orissa and West Bengal coasts, is likely to move slowly in a west-northwest direction.

Under its influence, the rainfall will ramp up with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa in the next 48 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is also likely over Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the same period. Thereafter, rainfall activity is likely to extend to Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern Uttar Pradesh.

SHEAR ZONE

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, the two monsoon lows can be seen as part of a higher scale belt of disturbed weather (shear zone) bridging Arabian Sea with the Bay of Bengal.

There is a continuous trough stretching west to east along either side of 20 deg South latitude (Nashik to Bhubaneswar).

The Bay `low' is seen being drawn northwards on a collision course with the eastern Himalayas by the weekend. This is expected to bring heavy rains to the east of the sub-continent. The rains would also extend to parts of the area of landfall of the Arabian Sea system on the peninsular west.

BIDDING TIME

According to Mr Singh, the seasonal anti-cyclone is bidding its time to move into the north-west of the country. A western disturbance is expected to move into the region over the next three days. This will pass to the east, clearing the way for the anti-cyclone, which heralds fair weather.

The behavioural aspects of the Arabian Sea `low' will also have a say on the emerging weather in the north-west. While the westward movement into the open Arabian Sea is seen as hastening the settling of fair weather, its re-curving and coastward bound movement will have a decidedly opposite impact.

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