The Hindu Business Line : Easterly wave seen growing in strength

Updated forecasts put out by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicate that an incoming easterly wave might rustle up enough speed to spin up as a depression in the Bay of Bengal.

South coastal Tamil Nadu and Kerala will get rainfall early next week, according to projections.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the southeast Bay, where the wave is predicted to roll in by this weekend, have already crossed the threshold 27.5 degree C mark. They could even test the level of 30 degree C, thereby preparing ideal ground conditions for a prospective storm to build.

Major storm

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology (DST) said the atmospheric conditions dictated by the land-based anti-cyclone extend to parts of the Bay, which work against development of a storm. It is not as if January has not witnessed any storm in the Bay, though.

There have been four or five occasions in the last 100 years when January cyclones have been reported from the Bay. While not entirely ruling out a depression/cyclone in the instant case, Dr Gupta said the system could crank up sufficient speeds briefly on entering the territorial waters. But further into the West, it would encounter the northerly flows associated with the anti-cyclone and lose in strength in the process.

By the ECMWF's own admission, the system is predicted to move fast to impact the southern Tamil Nadu coast on January 10. One other factor that may militate against the build-up is the proximity of the system to the equatorial zone. The system has to move farther away to the north to spin on its own axis and grow itself as a bigger storm. But this movement is not indicated at least for now, Dr Gupta said.

Southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala are predicted to get a good spell of rainfall on January 8 and 9. On Monday, a preparatory easterly wave has already formed over to the east of Malaysia and was preparing to travel to the west.

In the north, night temperatures still continue to be two- to four degrees C below normal with ground frost conditions prevailing over isolated pockets of Punjab, north Haryana and north Rajasthan. They are likely to fall, intensifying the cold wave conditions for the next two days.

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