The Hindu Business Line : Weather trigger for sustained crude spiral ruled out

Indian scenario
Outlook for climate anomalies in northern India is fairly weak.'
Over the past month or so, the Indian Ocean dipole has weakened considerably.

Thiruvananthapuram , Jan 5

A weather-driven trigger for a lasting crude oil spiral is unlikely, despite forecasts that normal winter conditions (meaning cooler climes) may return to the US northeast later this month.

Consumption of heating oil, a crude oil distillate, in the US northeast has major implications for oil prices in the international market. Warmer than normal winter temperatures till now have curbed demand and crude prices are testing one-year lows lately.

COLD SNAP

But forecast put out by various agencies on Thursday said a mass of cold air spilling over from Canada would lead to plunge in mercury, bringing normal winter conditions back to the US northeast. Natural gas prices have started looking up in anticipation of the likely spike in demand.

Writing to Business Line, Dr Tony Barnston, Director-Forecasting of International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society, Columbia University, said he tended to largely agree with the outlook for cooler northeast. But this will only be a passing phase.

"I share the view that `normal' winter temperatures will move into the US northeast before the end of January, at least briefly. But this is common sense, and not due to a specific scenario. The winter, overall, will likely see above normal temperature from Boston northward due to the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) condition."

INDIAN WINTER

Commenting on weather in India, Dr Barnston said the outlook for climate anomalies in northern India was fairly weak. This would mean normal winter pattern will rule for the most part during January and February, an outlook shared by the UK Met Office in its seasonal outlook for the sub-continent.

"When there is an El Nino, the region even farther north of India tends to be wetter than normal, particularly to the northwest (northern Pakistan and Afghanistan)," Dr Barnston said.

Over the past month or so, the Indian Ocean dipole, a seesawing ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, has weakened considerably. A negative dipole in the Indian Ocean is known to have an adverse impact on monsoons in India. But, Dr Barnston said the dipole does not affect Indian climate as much as it affects eastern equatorial Africa.

Positive dipole

A positive dipole is indicated in the blowing of winds from east to west in equatorial Indian Ocean. Ocean currents also shift in tandem, making the Arabian Sea off the Somali coast unusually warm, enhancing cloud formation. The eastern Indian Ocean around Indonesia becomes colder than normal and drier.

In a negative dipole year, the reverse happens, and the Arabian Sea near Africa becomes cooler and less cloudy while the Indian Ocean is warmer and rainier.

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