The Hindu Business Line : Pepper production likely to be below 50,000 tonnes

Rains during pollination have affected berry formation in the vines, some farmers in Kerala's Wayanad district said. A similar situation is seen in Idukki district also.

Quick-wilt disease

Besides, quick-wilt disease has taken its toll, as the affected vines have not been removed to ensure that the disease does not spread to other areas, official sources said.

On the other hand, replanting the old vines with improved variety has not been taking place at all. There are vines which are over 50 years old.

In addition, low prices that were prevailing in recent years dissuaded the farmers from taking proper care of the pepper plantations, they said.

The situation in other producing regions in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu is also not different. Lack of selling pressure and very thin arrivals at the terminal market after the beginning of the harvesting season also indicate a low crop, market observers pointed out.

Declining trend

Given this scenario, according to official estimates, the production is likely to be somewhere between 45,000 tonnes and 50,000 tonnes.

However, traders' estimate has put the total output this year at 37,900 tonnes. Along with a carryover stock of an estimated 20,000 tonnes and anticipated imports of 15,000 tonnes, the total availability would come to 72,000 tonnes. Domestic consumption is estimated at 50,000 tonnes.

Pepper output has been on a declining trend since 1998-99 except in 2002-03 when the production, according to official estimates, stood at 70,600 tonnes. Thereafter, it has been swinging between 50,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes.

Dropping yield

The reason attributed to this trend is the dropping yield per hectare, which used to be between 239 kg and 370 kg /ha against Vietnam's 2,500 - 3,000 kg/ha.

Available exportable surplus in 2007 was put at 12,900 tonnes, while the carryover stock was estimated at 10,000 tonnes for 2008, they said.

In fact, the IPC has projected a 15-20 per cent drop in world pepper production this year due to unfavourable weather and widespread pepper vine diseases. At the same time, global pepper consumption is estimated to grow at 3.46 per cent a year.

It is likely that there would be a tight supply position this year also.

Stocks sold-out

According to reports emanating from Vietnam, besides a decline in production in 2007, most of the pepper-producing countries are reported to have sold out their stocks. This is since the prices were attractive during the last two months.

Given this scenario, global prices are likely to increased in the coming days, Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) was quoted as saying.