The Hindu Business Line : <I>Jobless youth, a threat to stability</I>

A recent study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) brings out certain startling facts: Of the 1.1 billion young people aged 15-24 worldwide, one out of three is either seeking but unable to find work, has given up the job search entirely or is working but living on subsistence wages. While the youth population grew by 13.2 per cent between 1995 and 2005, employment among young people grew by only 3.8 per cent. Unemployed youth make up 44 per cent of the world's total unemployed despite the fact that their share of the total working-age population aged 15 and over is only 25 per cent. The youth unemployment rate was far higher than the adult unemployment rate of 4.6 per cent in 2005, rising from 12.3 per cent in 1995 to 13.5 per cent last year.

As regards India, it is hard to come by precise estimates of youth population or employment. Piecing together information available in the Census Report, National Sample Surveys and the UN statistical compilations, India's youth can be said to constitute 20 per cent of the total population. An interesting finding of the UN-based research is that the average annual increase in the number of youth in India was 3.06 million during 1985-90, and 2.1 million during 1990-95. It is expected to rise to 3.14 million during 1995-2000 and further to a peak of 3.72 million during 2000-2005.

Threat to social stability

As is only to be expected, the employment level has been unable to match the increase in the numbers of persons falling within the definition of youth (age group of 15-24). Here again, other than this broad statement, it is difficult to lay hands on precise or up-to-date figures, but indications are that the share of youth in total unemployment can be anywhere between 50 and 70 per cent.

The implications for social stability are clear. Unless maximum efforts are put in by the Central and State Governments, the corporate sector and the civil society to engage the youth in constructive occupations or avocations, India will head for an era of recurring social upheavals aggravated by militant movements even in those parts of the country which are relatively free at present.

Of course, from the First Plan downwards, various policy documents of the Government have paid the customary tribute to youth as "the most vital section of the community", its "most important component", and "the most idealistic, inspired and energetic section of our society". While rich in rhetoric, the results on the ground have been rated poor by the Government's own monitoring and evaluating agencies.

This was how the world outlook was summed up by the Director-General of the ILO some time ago: "Despite increased economic growth, the inability of economies to create enough decent and productive jobs is hitting the world's young especially hard. Not only are we seeing a growing deficit of decent work opportunities and high levels of economic uncertainty, but this worrying trend threatens to damage the future economic prospects of one of our worlds' greatest assets — our young men and women... Today, we are squandering the economic potential of an enormous percentage of our population, especially in developing countries which can least afford it. Focussing on youth, therefore, is a must for any country." This applies to India many times over.

It is imperative, therefore, for the Department of Youth Affairs to focus the Cabinet's and nation's attention on this looming threat to stability by bringing out a White Paper embodying purposeful initiatives for directing the energies and idealism of youth along creative and productive channels.

B. S. RAGHAVAN

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