The Hindu Business Line : UP raises political heat on Budget eve

L'affaire Uttar Pradesh is throwing up various political combinations, with foes lining up on the same side and allies opposing each other over the fate of the Mulayam Singh government.

Political developments in Uttar Pradesh seem to be coming to a head with the Samajwadi Party, which has 36 MPs in the Lok Sabha, withdrawing support to the United Progressive Alliance Government, even as the Election Commission announced that elections to the UP Assembly will begin on April 7. This is bound to frustrate the Congress(I)'s resolve to dismiss the Mulayam Singh government, against all advice from Constitutional experts and allies such as the Left parties and the Nationalist Congress Party.

An angry Samajwadi Party chief, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, on Wednesday said his party had extended outside support to the UPA only to keep the "communal forces" at bay, and charged the Congress(I) with working with the same forces to dislodge his government.

The `Sack-Mulayam-Singh-government' campaign has thrown up strange political combinations, with foes lining up on the same side and allies opposing each other over the move. The BJP, the main opposition at the Centre, finds itself in the uncomfortable position of backing the Congress(I). But the ruling UPA's allies have expressed their opposition to any such move.

At the core of the drama is the issue of defections, and who can beat the Congress(I), the country's oldest party, at this game? It, after all, initiated the Aya-Ram-Gaya-Ram culture. But, of course, nothing prevents its leaders from clamouring for the dismissal of the Mulayam Singh government following the Supreme Court judgement of February 14. The deed would have been done but for the Left parties reining in the Congress' enthusiasm to send out an elected government.

Coming to the Supreme Court judgement, it disqualifies, with retrospective effect the 13 Bahujan Samaj Party MLAs who had defected from the parent party to help the Samajwadi chief, Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, form a government in August 2003. Needless to say, the defecting MLAs did not satisfy the constitutional and legal requirement of forming at least one-third of the BSP legislature contingent. With their help — and not forgetting the support of the Congress MLAs to the Mulayam Singh government in August 2003 — the SP-led coalition government was able to prove its majority on the floor of the House. It came as no surprise that seven of the defecting BSP MLAs were rewarded with ministerial berths!

Subsequently, in September 2003, the BSP lost another 24 MLAs, who crossed over. They, too, now stand disqualified under the anti-defection law. But is it not a mockery of the electoral system that 37 erring MLAs enjoyed the privileges of office for three-and-a-half years despite defiance of the anti-defection law?

Congress-BJP nexus

To go back to August 2003, the Congress(I) was not the only entity that helped Mr Mulayam Singh gain control over a hung Assembly. Mr Kesri Nath Tripathi, of the BJP, was anointed Speaker when the BSP-BJP alliance was in place and Ms Mayawati was the Chief Minister. But following the brouhaha over the Taj corridor, the allies turned into foes, and Ms Mayawati resigned as the caretaker Chief Minister and advised the Governor, Mr Vishnu Kant Shastri (a former RSS pracharak), to dissolve the UP Assembly.

She was surely aware of the horse-trading going on in her backyard and that if the Governor invited the SP, the single largest party in the House, to form a government, many of her MLAs would be lured by the rival camp with offers of ministerial berths.

But the Governor did not dissolve the House, and invited the SP to prove its majority. The BSP lost 13 of its MLAs and its pleas to the Speaker to disqualify the defecting legislators under the anti-defection lawfell on deaf ears, encouraging more Gaya Rams to move to Mulayam's Aya Ram camp. The Congress(I), which is all righteousness now at the disqualification of the BSP defectors and argues that the continuance of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav as Chief Minister is untenable, apparently became amnesiac about the anti-defection law provisions in 2003, when it blessed the formation of the coalition government in UP by lending it outside support.

In April 2004 came the Lok Sabha polls and Mr Mulayam Singh infuriated the Congress(I) chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, by reportedly making a last-ditch effort to persuade the Left parties not to support a Congress-led government.

Apparently, this was why Mr Amar Singh was publicly humiliated at the dinner hosted by the Congress(I) chief for its allies, on the eve of government formation at the Centre. He was not invited to the dinner in the first place, but claimed he had gone on an invitation from the CPI(M) leader, Mr Harkishen Singh Surjeet. The Congress(I) did not require the SP's support to form the UPA government and said so openly, but nevertheless, the SP decided to support the government from outside, which it has now withdrawn.

The Congress High Command continued to shun the man who had also prevented Ms Sonia Gandhi from becoming Prime Minister in 2001. With the disqualification of the 37 defecting BSP MLAs, the UP government is clearly in a minority. But at this point, to invoke Article 356 to dismiss a government that is nearing the end of its term, would be outrageous, feel all those opposed to the invocation of Article 365.

It is inexplicable that the DMK, an important component of the UPA government and which was itself a victim of Article 356 when its government was dismissed in 1990 and has been vociferously condemning its regular misuse, should now be saying that it would support the Congress(I) in any action it takes against the Mulayam government. The latest twist in the UP saga is the Congress(I) asking the CPI(M) to persuade its "friend", Mr Mulayam Singh, to step down.

Drama in BJP camp

There is never a dull moment in the great Indian political circus and the in-house drama unfolding in the BJP camp is interesting too. Two days after the BJP leader, Mr L. K. Advani, wriggled out of taking a clear stand on dismissing the UP government by saying it was up to the Election Commission to take a call, the BJP President, Mr Rajnath Singh, said that if the Congress-led UPA decided to dismiss the Mulayam government and impose President's rule, it would back it on this issue.

Of course, the BJP would love to see chinks appear in the UPA's armour if the Congress(I) defies the Left, particularly the CPI(M) and its powerful chief, Mr Prakash Karat.

The Congress is hardly happy to receive homilies from the Left on how the fate of the State governments should not be decided either in New Delhi or the Raj Bhavans but on the floor of the House. Particularly because, over the last three years, even while supporting the UPA government, the CPI(M) has never missed an opportunity to tell the media that the possibility of a "Third Front" is always open!

The Congress, and indeed the BJP too, can hope to lead a coalition government at the Centre only in the absence of a strong and united `Third Front'. But there is nothing on the horizon about such a grouping, perhaps because prominent members of such a Front are busy enjoying power in the company of one party or the other.

For the time being, the Congress would do well to count its blessings and continue to lead the minority UPA Government and allow the Prime Minister to concentrate on directing the energies of his Government in solving the numerous problems of this country and its people. What he does not need at this time is an easily avoidable political crisis.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)