Business Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Monday, Feb 26, 2007 ePaper |
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Agri-Biz & Commodities
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Technical Analysis Palm oil futures could rise Gnanasekar T.
Markets are expected to be more active next week when Chinese traders get back to work after a week-long Lunar New Year holiday. However, there was still caution in the air, as market participants were reluctant to take positions ahead of February 1-25 export figures due to be released by the cargo surveyors. CPO active contract edged higher again. Important resistance is at 1985 Malaysian ringgits (MYR) a tonne, a trendline resistance point, and a daily close above 1985 MYR/tonne will rekindle bullish expectations for a test of the recent highs at 2061 MYR/tonne or even higher. As mentioned in the previous update, we expect a test of 2061 MYR/tonne or even higher or a sideways consolidation between 1860 MYR/tonne and 1965 MYR/tonne, followed by a rise higher. Important near-term support is at 1920 MYR/tonne. The move to 2003 MYR/tonne is the end of the fifth wave impulse and a move lower from there is a corrective A-B-C pattern in the making. We could be possibly tracking a fourth wave correction, which has some more room left on the downside. RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. The averages in MACD are above the zero line in the indicator suggesting bullishness. Prices are above the short-term 8-day period EMA at 1930 MYR/tonne indicating a bullish reversal and the 34-day period EMA is at 1902 MYR/tonne. Therefore, look for palm oil futures to edge higher. Supports at MYR 1920, 1895 and 1865. Resistances at MYR 1965, 1985 and 2005.
(The author is the director of Commtrendz Research and in the advisory panel of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd(MCX). The views expressed in this column are his own and not that of MCX. This analysis is based on the historical price movements and there is risk of loss in trading. He can be reached at gnanasekar_thiagarajan@yahoo.com.)
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