The Hindu Business Line : Population growth to stabilise by 2045

The 61st round of the National Sample Survey has shown that the annual growth rate in employment has accelerated from the 1.6 per cent levels of 1993-2000 to 2.5 per cent during 1999-2005.

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Kochi Feb. 27 The annual population growth rate in India is expected to decelerate from the prevailing 1.6 per cent levels to 0.9 per cent by 2026.

Despite the declining trend, the population is expected to touch 1,400 million in 2026. This growth trend is expected to stabilise only 25-35 years later, around the year 2045.

However, the Technical Group on Population Projections constituted by the National Commission on Population in May 2006 pointed out that the country is poised to reap the rich `demographic dividends' from the population transition.

As long as the population keeps on growing, larger number of people will be entering into the active working age group, more than the numbers exiting into retirement from active life.

The Economic Survey for 2006-07 has pointed out that the proportion of population in the working age group of 15-64 years would increase steadily from the current level of 62.9 per cent to 68.4 per cent in 2026. India's population is estimated to have grown from the Census 2001 figure of 1,029 million to 1,112 million in 2006.

Employment up

Meanwhile, the results of the 61st round of the National Sample Survey has shown that the annual growth rate in employment has accelerated from the 1.6 per cent levels of 1993-2000 to 2.5 per cent during 1999-2005. This is substantially higher than the 2.1 per cent level recorded during 1983-1994 period. Calling this trend an encouraging development, the Survey has, however, highlighted the need for faster employment growth for not only absorbing the addition to the labour force with the ongoing demographic changes, but also in reducing the unemployment rate.

Despite the accelerated growth in employment the Survey highlighted that rate of unemployment has also gone up marginally from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent during 1999-2000 to 2004-05. "Unemployment has gone up not because of high growth, but because the growth was not enough," the Survey observed.

The growth in unemployment was mainly because of the slowing down of the growth of agriculture. The share of agriculture in total employment has come down from 61.67 per cent to 54.19 per cent between 1993-94 and 2004-05.

With the declining share of agriculture in GDP, the scope for absorbing substantial additional labour force in agriculture appears limited.

Construction and services, particularly transport, storage and communication were the major engines that enabled employment growth in the economy. Employment growth in manufacturing fell short of its potential. The marginal decline in employment in the organised sector between 1994 and 2004 has raised some disturbing issues about optimal regulation and incentives, the Survey observed.

The annual employment growth in the organised sector decelerated from 1.2 to - 0.38 per cent per annum during 1983-94 to 1994-2004. This was despite a growth employment in the private sector.

This acceleration was not enough to make up for corresponding decline of employment in the public sector. The Survey felt that while rightsizing of the public sector whose primary objective is to deliver essential services such as education, health, roads and irrigation and not providing direct employment, is a welcome development and should continue, while there is an urgent need to step up employment in the organised private sector.

Regarding public health and its infrastructure the Survey observed that major inadequacies continued to persist, which are expected to lead to wide gaps in coverage and outreach services in rural areas. It highlighted that India compares poorly not only with China and Sri Lanka but even with Bangladesh and Nepal with respect to some health parameters. As per some empirical studies the overall quality of the state administration, education and income are often more important than specific public health interventions in explaining the differences in demographic and health indicators.

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