The Hindu Business Line : Export growth decelerates in Jan

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New Delhi March 1 The country's high export growth appears to have decelerated at the start of the last quarter of the current fiscal with export growth slowing down to 5.52 per cent at $9,648.36 million in January 2007, against the provisionally revised export figure of $9,144.04 million in January 2006.

Imports, on the other hand, grew at 23.24 per cent, notching $15,430.06 million in January 2007, against the provisionally revised imports of $12,520.07 million in January 2006. As a result, the trade deficit for January 2007 widened to $5.78 billion against $3.38 billion in January 2006.

However, a comparison of previous year's provisional figure with current fiscal's provisional figure shows that exports during January 2007 grew by 14.08 per cent at $9,648.36 million ($8,457.72 million), while imports grew by 35.74 per cent at $15,430.06 million ($11,367.68 million).

These two types of growth rates have been confounding analysts even as the international best practice favours comparing the current provisional figure with the previous year's latest revised figure. Senior officials in the Commerce Ministry told Business Line here when contacted about this anomaly that a committee is studying the discrepancies in data disclosure practice. Till it presents its views, the department would provide trade data only in this format, they say.

Officials further said that the deceleration in export growth is not quite unexpected as the country's export growth has been growing more than the GDP growth rate for most of the current fiscal. They said that the growth of manufacturing sector index, which was 11.9 per cent in July-September 2006 quarter, has come down to 10.7 per cent in Oct-Dec 2006 quarter. Besides, exports of petroleum products, which account for 16 per cent of the country's exports, had seen global crude price decline impacting on its contribution to export receipts. They said that the consistently rising rupee against the US dollar in recent months has also compounded the exporters woes. Besides, traditional export items such as gem and jewellery, accounting for substantial chunk in aggregate exports, are not doing well, they say.

Cumulatively, India's exports during the first 10 months of the current fiscal grew 32.22 per cent at $99,137.44 million ($99 billion), as against $74,978 million ($74.9 billion). However, the provisionally revised figure of exports during April to January 2006 amounted to $82,506.32 million.

Imports value

The cumulative value of imports during Apr-Jan 2007 was $1,49,725.99 million ($149.7 billion), which was higher by 37.61 per cent at $1,08,802.77 million ($108.8 billion) in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. The provisionally revised import figure for Apr-Dec 2006 has been estimated at $1,17,638.74 million ($117.6 billion).

A break-up of imports shows that crude oil imports were valued at $4,795.46 million in Jan 2007 ($4,167.40 million), showing a growth of 15.07 per cent. Cumulatively, crude oil imports during Apr-Jan 2007 at $48,612.07 million was 36.40 per cent higher than such imports at $35,638.39 million in the corresponding period last year.

Non-oil imports were estimated at $10,634.61 million during January 2007, which was 27.32 per cent higher than such imports at $8,352.67 million in Jan 2006. Cumulatively, non-oil imports during Apr-Jan 2007 at $1,01,113.93 million were 23.31 per cent higher than the level of such imports at $82,000.35 million in Apr-Jan 2006.

Trade deficit

Trade deficit for the first 10 months of the current fiscal zoomed to $50,588.55 million ($50.58 billion), against $33,824.77 million ($33.82 billion) during Apr-Jan 2006. The provisionally revised trade deficit for the first 10 months of the last fiscal has been put at $35,132.42 million ($35.13 billion) by the Directorate of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCI&S), Kolkata.

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