The Hindu Business Line : Outlook bright for next season coffee crop

Amid fears of a lower crop and fall in exports this season (November 2006-October 2007), coffee growers have something to cheer. The outlook is good for the next year's crop.

Plants looking good

"Things are looking good for the next season. With harvest almost over, there has been a good wintering for the crop," said Mr Bose Mandanna, former Vice-Chairman of the Coffee Board and a grower in Kodagu, Karnataka.

Wintering is a period when the crop is said to take complete rest with the formation of new leaves.

"The spikes from which the coffee berries will come and the plants are looking good," said Mr Mandanna.

Mr Anil K. Bhandar, former Chairman of the United Planters' Association of Southern India, also agreed with the views.

"Yes, the plants look to be in a good condition for the next season," he said.

"A production of 2.8 lakh tonnes to three lakh tonnes is possible going by the current health of the plants but we also need to have timely and good pre-monsoon showers," said Mr Mandanna.

Some growers are even looking out at the possibility of a three lt-plus production.

Hopes bright

The hopes for the next year's crop comes when this year's production has been pruned to 2.88 lt from initial estimates of as little over three lt by the Coffee Board.

The growers, however, are of the view that production could be much lower in the range of around 2.60 lt. This year's production is against last year's output of 2.74 lt and 2.75 lt the previous year.

This year output hit

This year's production has been mainly affected by untimely rains and white stem borer menace.

However, growers say the production will continued to be skewed in favour of robustas.

On the other hand, 3.80 lakh hectares or 80 per cent of the total area under coffee would be available for yield for the next season.

"In the rest of the areas, growers have gone or are going in for replantation.

The plants are immature and will take another five years to begin yielding," a planter said.

Exports

Meanwhile, permits issued for exports up to March 1 are higher at 32,180 tonnes against 29,620 tonnes last year.

Of this, shipments have been confirmed for 12,497 tonnes.

Until March 1 last year, 26,643 tonnes are reported to have been exported. The confirmed shipment figures are not comparable immediately since growers take time to file returns of exports.

Farmgate prices of coffee continue to rule firm with Arabica cherry being quoted at Rs 4,325-4,400 for a 50-kg bag, while robusta cherry is ruling at Rs 1,610-1,650.

Coffee prices are expected to rule firm this year on tight demand-supply situation.

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Outlook bright for next season coffee crop

No dramatic turnaround likely