The Hindu Business Line : `Low' regains status, may intensify

Thiruvananthapuram April 11 Tuesday's upper air cyclonic circulation has descended and reorganised itself as a `low' over the Gulf of Mannar on Wednesday while remaining more or less rooted to its overnight position.

The result was high winds, heightened thunder activity and a strong burst of afternoon torrents at many places in south Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

The `low' may intensify and generate fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall in these areas for two more days, says a forecast from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

TRACK UNCLEAR

The track for its onward movement is not clear yet, according to Mr Ranjeet Singh of the NCMRWF. But some other models indicated a likely shift to the northeast, into the open waters of the Bay of Bengal. It was earlier thought to take a westward track and cross into southeast Arabian Sea.

Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com seemed to agree with the outlook of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which depicted the `low' spinning northeast and extending the rain cover to more areas in central coastal Tamil Nadu over the next five-day period.

The `low' will continue to bring rain for at least another day or two and, possibly, for an indefinite time to come, Mr Andrews said. But hints about formation of a potential tropical depression or even a cyclone do not seem to hold good anymore.

NOR'WESTERS ACTIVE

Meanwhile, the northeast, concurrently the other wet spot of the country, saw the so-called Nor'Westers (or Kal Baisakhi) ride into hyperactivity dumping heavy to very heavy rainfall in the region.

Nor'westers are another indication of the Indian landmass having settled into pre-monsoon mode, during when atmospheric convection plays an important role in deciding local weather. During April and May, parts of northeast India, especially Meghalaya, Assam, West Bengal and Bihar, are known to experience severe pre-monsoon thunderstorms.

They are called Nor'Westers because they appear to come from a northwesterly direction. In Bengal, they are known as a `Kal Baisakhi', meaning a mass of dark clouds in the month of Baisakh.

The rainfall associated with these thunderstorms is of a transient nature, unlike during monsoon.

Agartala reported an exceptionally heavy 20 cm of rainfall on Wednesday. In the south, Kochi in Kerala topped the charts with 10 cm.

HEAT WAVE IN NORTH

In the north, the prevailing heat wave appears to hold and extend into more areas. Model prediction suggests that it will spread from Rajasthan and eastward into Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh during the next two to three days.

India Meteorological Department has issued isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall warning for Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during the next 36 hours. Isolated heavy falls are also indicated for south Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the next 48 hours.

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