The Hindu Business Line : Southeast Bay warming up to host `low'

Thiruvananthapuram April 22 Southeast Bay of Bengal is warming up to host a low-pressure area within the next two to three days, the first such in this hotbed of weather activity during this pre-monsoon season.

Earlier last week, a `low' had formed in the southwest Bay, which underwent one round of intensification, before weakening and petering out beyond the territorial waters into Myanmar.

ITCZ MIGRATION

The impending `low' will get thrown up as part of the seasonal migration (in line with the Sun's movement) to the north of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), or the global band of low pressure. Such hit-or-miss visitations by the ITCZ have often resulted in the formation of weather systems in the Bay.

But, according to Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology, it will be another day before the evolving systems lends itself to being analysed for its exact coordinates and credentials. The parent trough was still lurking far away to the east of the scene of expected `action.'

UNCERTAINTY LINGERS

There is clear evidence of the ITCZ getting stimulated, which is normal for this time of the year. But there is some uncertainty on whether the resulting `low' in the southeast Bay would acquire the characteristics of a weather system of a truly tropical nature - in which case it should get progressively organised, grow in intensity by feeding on the warn waters and move west for a landfall along the southeast peninsular coast. The uncertainty flows out from the variable strength of a prevailing trough in the upper level westerlies from the opposite direction, which is contra-indicative to the formation and growth of the `low.' This trough had caused the ongoing thunderstorm activity to get shifted to the east in the peninsula as well as to its north.

CRUCIAL WESTERLY

If the strength of the westerly trough proves too much, it's likely that the tropical disturbance in the southeast Bay would get a move on to the west as part of an elongated easterly trough, but could still create some weather along the peninsular coast. The National Centre for Medium Term Weather Forecasting (NCMWRF) has stuck to its forecast about the formation of the `low' but it also cited model predictions suggesting that that ongoing widespread rain over the north eastern States are likely to continue for the next 2-3 days.

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