The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon sets in early over Andaman Sea

Thiruvananthapuram May 10 The southwest monsoon has set in over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea on Thursday, at least eight days ahead of schedule.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that conditions were favourable for its further advancement over some more parts of Andaman Sea and southeast Bay of Bengal during the next 48 hours.

The Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon normally breaks around May 18-20, followed 10-12 days later by the counterpart Arabian Sea arm along the southwest coast of the mainland. The onset over intervening Sri Lanka takes place roughly midway between.

`LOW' TAKING SHAPE

The anticipated low-pressure area is likely to form over east central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea within the next 24 hours, the IMD said. Sources say there is a possibility that it might initially move west and intensify.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the `low' will later move in a north-northeast direction and make a landfall along the West Bengal coast by May 17. Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com does not rule the possibility of the system reaching cyclonic strength.

The larger trough of `low' in the Bay may linger for another week, Mr Andrews said. But the high-pressure area extending from Arabia east to Pakistan and northwest India was predominant, indicating that the oppressive heating of this region will continue.

Weathermen say there is no guarantee that the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon will retain the eight-day lead of its counterpart, but there are indications that the southwest Indian Ocean may be bracing to guide a barrage of cross-equatorial monsoon flows off the east African coast into the Arabian Sea.

The ECMWF said in its six-day outlook that the cross-equatorial monsoon flows may pick in strength around May 18, culminating in a blow-up near the Horn of Africa (Somali coast) two days later.

This could well be the trigger the system needs to heave itself forward to the Kerala coast.

In contrast, heat wave conditions prevailed over some parts of south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu during the past 24 hours where the day temperatures were above normal by 5-6 deg C.

The northeasterly component of the core of winds associated with the cyclonic circulation in the Bay and prevailing northwesterlies from the plains may have combined to make the hot winds blow into the southeastern coast.

Heat wave conditions are likely to continue over these regions and extend to some more parts of south India during next 2-3 days. The highest maximum temperature of 44.8 deg C was recorded at Chandrapur in Maharashtra during the past 24 hours.

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