The Hindu Business Line : Heat wave unrelenting along TN, AP coasts

Thiruvananthapuram May 16 Severe tropical cyclones are remembered for high winds and unforgiving torrents, but not 01B Akash, whose remnants have forced a gust of dry continental winds into the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra perpetuating a searing heat wave.

Akash headed north-northeast in the Bay of Bengal waters and chose to dump its moisture contents over Bangladesh, Myanmar and parts of Northeast India, leaving mainland India hot and dry. No respite would be possible unless the westerly flows feeding the cyclone remnants loitering in the northeast are reversed.

Sea breeze compromised

These flows have severely compromised the sea-to-land breeze that normally blows in the evenings and helps cools down things locally in coastal cities such as Chennai. The sea breeze can settle only if the westerly flows abate.

But this would not happen at least for the next two days since the low-pressure area from erstwhile Akash is still hovering over south Assam and adjoining Manipur and Mizoram and will take time to spend itself out fully, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

The situation is slightly better in north India and the adjoining northwest, which, despite housing the monsoon heat engine, get relief thanks to occasional dousing from the confluence of moisture-laden western disturbances and upper level easterlies. But the southeast coast is far removed geographically from this region of weather disturbances.

Onset matrix

Meanwhile, vital pieces in the monsoon onset matrix are falling into place for the mainland. For instance, high-pressure in the Mascarene Islands in southwest Indian Ocean; the Arabian Sea warm pool that houses the mandatory `low'; the seasonal trough from northwest India to the east; and the `heat low' sitting in the northwest that aligns the pressure gradient to suitable position.

The Mascarene Islands `high' guides the southwesterly flows into the Arabian Sea and the `low' in the southeast Arabian Sea receives these flows and steers them into the country's southwestern coast. Models have varied perceptions with regard to the credentials of the Arabian Sea `low'.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) maintains that the `low' would intensify progressively to become a cyclone. It is predicted to hit the Maharashtra-Konkan coast, according to latest update. The moot question is whether the flows would be sustained after the cyclone landfall.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) depicts a scenario that Dr Ramesh says is best suited for growth and advancement of monsoon flows. NCEP sees the `low' lingering as such for an extended time before moving north, which would help deepen the flows and ensure orderly progress of the current.

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