The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon waits for fresh southerly surge

Thiruvananthapuram May 30 The monsoon seemed to cool its heals at its overnight port of call in coastal Karnataka on Wednesday even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that a fresh surge may be heading in from the South from Sunday.

The ensuing wet spell will hold for at least a week (until June 8), which would probably see the Arabian Sea basin spinning up a monsoon vortex-like circulation, said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology.

CYCLONE BREWING?

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained its outlook for formation of a major system in the sea during this period, expected to materialise as the circulation intensifies into a possible cyclone. It is tipped to move in a north-northwest direction, away from India's coast.

The ECMWF had earlier projected that the system would move towards the country's southwest coast. The change in course may have been occasioned by the forecast of the arrival of another westerly trough into the country's northwest, Dr Ramesh said.

Most of the flows from the fresh monsoon surge will get directed into brewing cyclone, but the monsoon current directed towards the southwest coast will still be maintained. This will help scale up the monsoon to `vigorous' status along the west coast.

KONKAN FORAY

Though further progress of monsoon in the peninsula (beyond south coastal Andhra Pradesh) is not indicated, this spell will see the system advance into more parts of the Bay of Bengal. On the west coast, however, more and more areas of Konkan and Goa will fall within its footprint.

A part of the reinvigorated flows getting directed into the Bay of Bengal will in turn help lift the sagging Bay current of monsoon. This could possibly lead to the long-awaited onset of monsoon in the Northeastern States, Dr Ramesh said.

An IMD forecast on Wednesday said that under the influence of an offshore trough extending from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast, fairly widespread rainfall is likely to continue over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the next 2-3 days. A separate warning said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

LA NINA WATCH

Meanwhile, an update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said on Wednesday that although computer models show a La Nina event is likely in 2007, there hasn't been any consistent development in that direction during May.

La Nina is the colder counterpart of El Nino, and is seen as a good augury for Indian monsoon despite having no direct cause-effect relationship. Current conditions in the equatorial Pacific remain neutral. But the precursors for the development of a La Nina event are still evident, the BoM said.

The fact that all major international coupled models show further cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean over the coming months, suggests that there is an elevated chance of a La Nina event occurring. Conversely, this suggests that the El Nino risk is very low, which itself is good news for Indian monsoon, Dr Ramesh said.

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