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Vinson Kurian

Under close watch for any signs of intensification

Thiruvananthapuram May 31 The offshore trough extending from the Karnataka coast to Kerala now features an embedded cyclonic circulation high up over east central Arabian Sea and off the Karnataka coast. Expectedly, the weathermen have put it under their close watch for any signs of intensification.

Several international models seem to converge in their outlook for the circulation to descend to lower levels and intensify. But opinions vary on the likely direction of its onward movement and, by extension, implications for the country's southwest coast.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained its watch for intensification of the system into a possible cyclone and its movement to the north-northwest, away from the Indian coast.

It will still be able to pump in enough moisture to keep the monsoon in a vigorous state along the southwest coast. ECMWF graphics clearly show that the moisture level and cloudiness will be retained despite the prospect of a major weather system raging to the immediate west.

NORTHERLY TRACK

But the US Navy model is more circumspect, suggesting a predominantly northerly movement of the system without intensifying markedly. It would also carry the monsoon current to the north, including the Konkan, Gujarat and Saurashtra areas.

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, the upper air trough in the westerlies is fading over Pakistan and Northwest India. High pressure may be building over Arabia eastward into India. This is certainly the kind of shift that is to be expected leading up to a widespread onset of the monsoon.

He, too, would keep the Arabian Sea under watch for hints of a depression, expected to develop from `a circulation centre now off Kerala and Karnataka.

CYCLONE UNWELCOME

Meanwhile, Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology is of the opinion that it is in the best interests of the monsoon that a cyclone does not develop in the Arabian Sea as this would mean a violent but immediate end to the flows, which could otherwise head towards the mainland to fall as rain.

He also observed that tropical cyclones are known to develop during `less active phase' of the monsoon when the sea basin is extremely warm and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) maintains a pipeline that dumps oodles of moisture into this boiling cauldron.

But not in the instant case when the monsoon is tipped to enter a vigorous phase sooner than later. Dr Ramesh expected the moderately strong system evolving in the sea to linger for sometime, rally the monsoon flows around itself, and drive rain along the west coast until June 8.

In any case, the emerging scenario provides for a perfect setting for monsoon to prosper, Dr Ramesh said.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said the offshore trough with an embedded circulation would trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the next 2-3 days. Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over south Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra and isolated over north Konkan.

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