The Hindu Business Line : `Low' forms, tipped to intensify into depression

Thiruvananthapuram June 1 A low-pressure area has formed over east-central Arabian Sea on Friday with prospects of intensification into a depression, an update of India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, quoting model predictions.

The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) assessed that the system was buffeted by winds speeding to 25 knots (47 km/hr) on Friday afternoon. The next important threshold is 27 knots (50 km/hr), when the system expectedly tosses itself up into the category of a depression.

AWAY FROM COAST

Various numerical prediction models, including the JTWC, now expect the system to move north-westwards, away from the country's west coast. A fresh southerly surge expected in by Sunday (June 3) will help the monsoon, currently staying put over the Karnataka-south Konkan region, to get a move on into the north.

But the regions already covered by the monsoon on the southwest coast will continue to get fairly widespread rain thanks to the weather system out into the sea, despite a considerable portion of the flows getting redirected in the opposite direction.

RAINS LIKELY

An IMD forecast said the southwest coast would receive fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep. Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands and at a few places over south interior Karnataka.

According to Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com, the unsettled weather swirling along the west coast will need to be watched; it could even become a cyclone. But numerical forecasts show an organised cyclonic circulation (not necessarily a cyclone) swinging west next week to the Somalia coast of Africa.

HEAT IN NORTH

The westward motion implies the presence of high pressure to the north, from Arabia east into the heart of India. The overall appearance of things seems positive and progressive with respect to the monsoon, he said.

Meanwhile, a gruelling heat wave reared its head again elsewhere, almost surely in answer to the weakening of the cool westerlies. Highs of 38- to 42 deg C were found mostly over the favoured spots for the end of May - the north peninsular and north-eastern India along with the Himalayas.

An IMD update, too, said that heat wave conditions were prevailing over Bihar and adjoining West Bengal. They are likely to continue during the next three days and may extend into some more parts of northeast. Day temperatures are also likely to increase over northwest and central India.

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