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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram June 6 Landfall and subsequent weakening of super cyclone `Gonu' over Oman is triggering a flurry of activity in the Arabian Sea, with the building monsoon flows prompting a rain watch alert in the southwest coast and the north-eastern region.

The incoming monsoon pulse is more south southwesterly (as against west southwesterly origin in the onset phase) and will start lashing the coast northwards from the peninsular tip over the next two days, according to projections by various models.

This phase will also see the monsoon current being yanked out of its moorings over the south Konkan coast where its northward had ended prematurely on May 29. The evolving conditions will afford it a free run to the north and immediate northeast. The long-awaited onset of rains in the northeast will also take place simultaneously.

"We are already seeing signs of revival of the monsoon," said Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. Significantly, this time round, there is a surge coming in from the Bay of Bengal as well. The Bay has been surprisingly dormant after the onset phase, a crucial factor that led the monsoon flows to stray and be pulled away from the coast to feed super cyclone Gonu.

HEAVY RAINS

Forecasts put out by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested that rainfall amounting to 15 cm and above is likely along the Kerala coastline for three days starting Wednesday. Some of the rain bands will get extended into the east, to reach interior Tamil Nadu as well.

The seven-day forecast by the same model indicated that the rainfall regime would be more or less retained with further penetration into the north as well as to the east. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) ventured to suggest that the rainfall would, in this manner, sustain until June 20.

India Meteorological Department analysed meteorological conditions and cited numerical weather prediction models on Wednesday to state that conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the northeastern States during the next three days.

The rainfall activity is also likely to increase over the south peninsula during the same period, it said. Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep, and at a few places over south interior Karnataka.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at a few places over south Konkan and Goa; and isolated over north Konkan, Gujarat and south Madhya Maharashtra. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern states, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

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