The Hindu Business Line : Weakened storm wagging tail over Konkan, Gujarat

Thiruvananthapuram June 24 Tropical Storm `03B' has weakened into a well-marked `low' on Sunday and hung over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch, leaving a trail of death and destruction along a west-northwest track in the peninsula.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the system could move northwest and across the border into Pakistan, but its tail would continue to wag for some more time to dump lashing rain over Konkan, Goa, Mumbai, madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and coastal Karnataka.

FRESH `LOW'

True to predictions, a `03B' remnant has strayed east into the northwest Bay of Bengal prior to setting up a fresh `low' by Tuesday. Satellite pictures revealed clouds gathering around in the area. The evolving dynamics have prompted the IMD to straight away sound an alert for another prospective depression.

The European Centre for Medium Term Weather-Forecasts (ECMWF) sees this system intensifying further into a possible tropical cyclone and crossing the Orissa/West Bengal by Thursday. The belt of torrential rainfall generated will extend as far to the southwest as the extreme south peninsula.

Cyclone or not, the brewing system is expected to reactivate the monsoon in the eastern parts of the country. A north-northwesterly track will help push monsoon into west Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. Seasonal rains had stopped advancing in the east with `03B' steering most of the southwesterly flows into the peninsula.

GODSEND FOR CROPS

Importantly, the rains would be a godsend for pulse and oil seed crops and sowing could begin in right earnest. This was a luxury denied to farmers during the two previous seasons (2006 and 2005) with deleterious consequences for the farm-based economy.

Meteorologists are watching the emerging scenario with great interest since two weather systems (`03B' and the brewing `low') on either side of the peninsula could change the complexion of the game with positive implications for the farming heartland of the country.

A remnant of `03B' lingering in the northeast Arabian Sea is a harbinger of a mid-tropospherical cyclonic circulation (MTC) developing at a height of three to five km above sea level. An MTC can stay on in that position for long and is able to anchor the progress of monsoon into as yet uncovered geographies.

According to Dr Ramesh, it would be at least another day before a last word could be said on the formation of the MTC. ECMWF graphics tend to discount this possibility for the time being at least.

An MTC co-existing with a Bay of Bengal `low' is rare and a potential trigger for flooding rains across central India and parts of northwest and north India as well.

On the flip side, an MTC not backed up by a corresponding system across the peninsula would cause the monsoon flows to circulate and dump rainfall around itself only.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

According to IMD projections, the prospective depression in the northwest Bay would move inland and hop across Orissa, north Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. Widespread rainfalls with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Orissa, north Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh from Tuesday. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand.

On Sunday, the monsoon advanced into the remaining parts of Arabian Sea, most parts of Saurashtra and Kutch, some parts of Gujarat region, the remaining parts of madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada, some more parts of Vidarbha, Orissa and Jharkhand. The northern limit passed through Naliya, Bhuj, Baroda, Jalgaon, Nagpur, Raipur, Jharsuguda, Ranchi, Varanasi, Sultanpur, Bahraich and Mukteshwar.

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