The Hindu Business Line : Bay may spring back to life by weekend

Thiruvananthapuram, July 9 Emerging signals indicate that the Bay of Bengal may be warming up to host a weather system early next week ending the lull forced by errant monsoon flows now feeding Man-Yi, a dominant west Pacific storm.

This is expected to happen with the east-northeast movement of Man-Yi to slip gradually into the open waters of the Pacific and away from being of any influence to monsoon flows over the Bay.

This is a forecast that domestic and international weather models agree on. They predict that a cyclonic circulation will spin into life over the west-central Bay by the weekend. It is expected to descend to lower levels to constitute the next low-pressure area, sending the Bay waters buzzing again.

BAY ‘LOW’ BREWING

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predictions clearly indicate that the `low’ would materialise by July 19. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) points to the ‘low’ moving inland to set off rains in east and central India initially.

This is seen as combining with the strong flows over the Arabian Sea to keep the monsoon in good shape, ruling out a ‘break monsoon’ phase just yet. In fact, the Arabian Sea flows have kept a relentless pace after emerging out of the shadow of Super Cyclone Gonu early in June.

The strength of the flows has actually led to the re-intensification of a Sunday’s well-marked ‘low’ over east Madhya Pradesh back into a depression that lay centred over northwest Madhya Pradesh, close to Shivpuri, on Monday morning.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

The system is likely to move in a north-northwest direction initially, an IMD update said. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over east Rajasthan and Gujarat during the next two days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over Saurashtra and Kutch, west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, madhya Maharashtra and West Rajasthan.

The current meteorological analysis suggests that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over northwest India during next three days.

This will come about as the depression over northwest madhya Pradesh bumps into ain incoming western disturbance.

LOG JAM

The systems will ‘lock’ each other into a log jam over northwest India, which will cause the depression to lose some of intensity. This will bring about a brief lull in the ongoing wet session, which will be lifted as the westerly trough gets back to moving east, bringing the rain belt active along the foothills of the Himalayas.

In this manner, the rain-deficient east Uttar Pradesh and parts of Bihar are priming to get a round of good precipitation.

Meanwhile, model predictions suggest another westerly trough is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh by the weekend.

This too is expected to set up an interaction with the monsoon easterlies from the Bay to trigger rain in the hilly regions and adjoining plains in the north.

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