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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, July 23 The southeastern flank of the peninsula is being brought under a wet spell thanks to the shift in rain belt associated with the weak monsoon phase.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday said the current meteorological analysis suggested an increase in rainfall activity over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu over the next three days.

Persistence of an offshore trough along the west coast is expected to bring fairly widespread rainfall to that part of the peninsula as well but with a bias towards the north. On Monday, the trough ran down from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala.

The renewed spell will see Kerala, coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep bearing the brunt during the next two days, the IMD said. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) too has forecast persistent showers in the region for a week starting Monday.

Several pockets in central India may also record rain of varying intensity during the period with the westward progression of a land-based cyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere (a weak monsoon ‘low’) currently perched over Assam and neighbourhood.

Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy fall is likely over West Bengal, Sikkim and the north eastern States during the next days, the IMD said.

The session is likely to hold until Wednesday during when the periodically intense rain cover would be confined to a narrow corridor starting from east of India right up to Gujarat, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com. The system should later cross the border and dip into Sindh, Pakistan.

On Monday, a trough in westerlies (western disturbance) ran from Jammu and Kashmir down south to the northeast Arabian Sea, across Pakistan. This trough will bring fairly widespread rainfall over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains. Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh stand to benefit from the ensuing wet session.

Meteorologists are looking beyond July 30 and early August for the first few signs of a possible revival of the monsoon. Projections depict a calibrated build-up of rainfall over southeast Arabian Sea but pronouncedly so over the seas in southwest and adjoining Bay of Bengal during the week.

‘Blow-ups’ are also indicated for the flood plains of Bangladesh during the week as also for Gangetic West Bengal. But weathermen would not confirm yet if this would go to ensure progressive rain coverage of land and thus a meaningful revival of monsoon rains.

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Wet spell for south-east peninsular flank

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