The Hindu Business Line : Cotton output likely to touch 300-325 lakh bales

Bright outlook
Exports are expected to increase to 55 lakh bales
Gujarat is likely to see the output top 100 lakh bales.
Production in Maharashtra could top 50 lakh bales again next season.

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Chennai/Mumbai, Aug. 12

Cotton production during 2007-08 (October-September) could be between 300 lakh bales (of 170 kg) and 325 lakh bales, though the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) had treaded a cautious path estimating it at 310 lakh bales.

BT Cotton

The feature of the record production is that the contribution of Bt cotton is likely to increase to 55 per cent from the current season’s 35 per cent. The CAB is a body, which draws representation from the textile industry, cotton growers, traders and government officials.

A conclusive figure on the production is expected to be arrived at during the board’s meeting in November.

According to Mr B.A. Patel, Joint Textile Commissioner, Bt cotton production is likely to touch 160 lakh bales, up from 100 lakh bales.

Acereage

Last year, Bt cotton was sown in 40 per cent of the 91.58 lakh hectares that were totally brought under cotton cultivation. This year, the coverage could be 55 per cent.

“The figures put out by the Centre are sale of approved Bt cotton. If we taken into sale of unapproved Bt cotton, then it could be at least 60 per cent,” industry sources said.

Cotton prices are expected to rule steady despite the projected record output. One of the reasons for the expectation is that global prices for the commodity are expected to rise 20 per cent to 71 cents.

Global prices

According to the International Cotton Advisory Council, world cotton production is expected to be lower at 25.1 million tonnes (mt) against 25.7 mt last season. Consumption could rise to 26.9 mt from 26.2 mt, exports to nine mt from 8.2 mt and carryover stocks could drop to 10 mt from 12.1 mt.

When contacted, Mr D.K. Nair, Secretary-General of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, said prices would depend on two factors – exports and mills consumption.

Exports

“Exports are expected to increase to 55 lakh bales from this year’s 47 lakh bales. There is a good demand for Indian cotton,” he said.

Currently, Indian cotton has emerged as the prime competitor of US cotton in the Chinese market. With China and the US expecting a lower crop, Indian exports are likely to gain.

Besides, cotton is being sent to Pakistan , Bangladesh, Thailand and Indonesia.

Consumption

“Mills consumption has so far been good. But further down, it will depend on how Indian textiles behave in the global market, particularly in the background of the rupee strengthening against the dollar,” Mr Nair said.

Gujarat, where cotton production this season has been estimated at 93 lakh bales, is likely see the output top 100 lakh bales. Production in Maharashtra could top 50 lakh bales again next season.

These two States are witnessing a scenario where farmers are switching over to cotton from other crops such as sugarcane and pulses.

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