The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon may scale up in Sept

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 27 Latest forecasts by international weather models indicate that the southwest monsoon may get active during the first week of September, which marks the last month of the season that began in June.

Domestic models also seem to concur with this outlook with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting that the ongoing rainfall in east and northeast India, a feature associated with weak monsoon phase, may start to taper off from August 30.

This will be accompanied by a calibrated rise in rainfall along the west coast and scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over northwest India in what are conditions associated with a strengthening monsoon.

Cross-equatorial flows are seen picking to signal the arrival of a busy session along the west coast and adjoining central India during the first week of September. Upper air cyclonic circulations, with prospects of descending to lower levels, are seen occupying vantage points along the west coast (south Gujarat-north Konkan) and the southeastern coast (Andhra Pradesh-Orissa) to drive monsoon westerlies and easterlies.

Central Indian and peninsular interior should benefit from the rains being generated in this manner. All this will happen despite the presence of a concurrent typhoon-in-the-making in west central Pacific, which, for the umpteenth time this season, is shown to move in a direction that suits the interests of the Indian monsoon best. Successor to Super Typhoon ‘Sepat’ that hit Taiwan and later China last week, the emerging storm is expected to target Japan around September 6.

Current meteorological analysis suggests that the fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls over the north eastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh will continue for the next three days as well.

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