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Suresh P. Iyengar

Mumbai, Aug. 31 The monsoon is likely to take a heavy toll on the cardamom crop in Kerala this year. Major production centres such as Vandanmedu, Udumbanchola, Rajakkad and Santapara in Idukki have been hard hit by incessant rains and gusty winds.

Total production in the State is expected to be 25 per cent lower at 8,500-9,000 tonnes, compared to 11,235 tonnes last year.

“Two rounds of harvesting completed recently in Kerala were poor. Another four to five rounds are left. Production is projected to be much lower than the previous year,” said Mr Veeresh Hiremath, research analyst, Karvy Comtrade.

The present arrival in the spot markets is old stock, and full-fledged arrival of the recent harvest will begin in October.

“To meet the intermediary demand we can expect good buying from stockists and exporters. This may reverse the prevailing bearish trend of cardamom futures on the commodity exchanges,” he said.

Delay in harvesting in Idukki, where 60 per cent of total area is rainfed, may result in lower arrivals in the short term. Currently, arrivals are around 20,000-25,000 kg against 45,000-55,000 kg in the same period last year.

Kerala accounts for 78 per cent of the county’s total cardamom production, while Karnataka is a distant second with 14 per cent followed by Tamil Nadu at seven per cent.

Harvesting is slow due to inclement weather and may pick up between October and November. The season ends in January.

Though October is the peak-harvesting period we can expect good buying in the market due to upcoming festive demand from domestic as well as UAE markets. Old stocks are also fast depleting.

Cardamom futures on MCX has fallen sharply to Rs 504 levels after testing a high of Rs 593. On Friday, it closed marginally lower at Rs 515 per kg from Thursday’s Rs 517 level.

Prices are presently trading in a bearish channel with trend channel support pegged at the Rs 500 level. “For the short term we recommend buying around Rs 500-510 targeting Rs 528-30 and then Rs 540 levels with stop loss at Rs 489. And for the October contract, we recommend buying around Rs 525-528 targeting Rs 548-50 and then Rs 558 levels with stop loss at Rs 517,” said Mr Hiremath.

More Stories on : Spices & Condiments | Natural Calamities | Climate & Weather | Kerala

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