The Hindu Business Line : Getting into election mode?

The little twists and turns, barbs and counter barbs between the political parties are aimed at impending elections. By now, there is little doubt that the UPA, by choice rather than affirmative action on the Left’s part, will not complete its full term, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh…Will the UPA Government celebrate its fourth anniversary?

Deep cracks have appeared in the Congress (I)-Left alliance over the Indo-US civilian deal issue, making an early Lok Sabha election inevitable. In the last few weeks, though senior Congress leaders such as Mr Pranab Mukherjee tried to whitewash the differences and claimed everything was going to be all right, the Science and Technology Minister, Mr Kapil Sibal’s scathing attack on the Left, particularly the CPI (M) and its General Secretary, Mr Prakash Karat, on M onday came as a bit of a surprise.

Just when everybody had thought that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Government would somehow put the nuke deal on the backburner and aim to at least cross the milestone of its fourth year in power next April, Mr Sibal has upped the ante. Since he is too junior a leader to rock the boat on his own, there are clear indications that he has the blessings of 10 Janpath to do so.

It is clear that not only is the honeymoon over, the marriage is breaking up too.

Bolstering the Congress (I)’s confidence of going in for an early election are polls and surveys that predict that a Congress-led alliance would be the front-runner if Lok Sabha elections are held anytime soon.

The buzz in Delhi is that the winter session of Parliament might be the last one of this government and polls may be held in February-March, 2008. But another viewpoint is that the UPA Government is determined to cross its fourth anniversary and plans elections only in late 2008.

Ram Sethu imbroglio

But if the UPA Government’s lightning response to contain the damage caused by the ASI affidavit denying historical evidence for the existence of Ram — a big blunder in the first place — is any indication, elections are just around the corner.

The Congress (I)’s top leadership, basking in the glory of every pre-poll survey predicting a sure edge for the party vis-À-vis the BJP, was livid at this slip. As there was a national furore, with the BJP leading the campaign on how the UPA Government had insulted millions of Hindus, the affidavit was withdrawn, post-haste. Of course, in typical Congress culture of sycophancy, a race has begun to give credit to the Congress chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, for taking a speedy initiative to contain the damage.

A few feeble voices are trying to argue that it was the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, who did his bit for this cause. But, honestly, does it matter to anybody else, apart from loyalists on either side? What does matter is why such an insensitive and explosive material was allowed to be filed before the court at all.

Karunanidhi-Jaya war

As though the matter was not embarrassing enough, the UPA now has to suffer further discomfiture with one of its most trusted allies, Mr M. Karunanidhi of the DMK, insisting that the government’s original affidavit was correct.

Normally reticent and one to choose his words carefully, compared to his bete noir, the AIADMK General Secretary, Ms J. Jayalalithaa, who rarely minces her words, he is giving sharp statements on the affair. Sample this one: “Some say there was a person over 17 lakh years ago. His name was Ram. Do not touch the bridge (Ram Sethu) constructed by him. Who is this Ram? From which engineering college did he graduate? Is there any proof”, he asked while addressing a public meeting in Erode on the occasion of DMK founder, C. N. Annadurai’s 99th birth anniversary.

Mr Karunanidhi’s barbs are directed more at Ms Jayalalithaa who has filed a petition in the Supreme Court seeking protection of Rama Sethu! As she moves closer to her natural ally, the BJP, the DMK will obviously wage a war against the combine, averring all the time that the party is only adhering to its rationalist roots and does not believe in any religion!
Mayawati factor

The crux of the matter is that the BJP will not be able to get much mileage from the UPA Government’s goof-up, thanks to the latter’s dexterous quick-turn, but all these little twists and turns, barbs and counter barbs, are aimed at impending elections. By now, there is little doubt that the UPA, by choice rather than affirmative action on the Left’s part, will not complete its full term. As many theories as dates for the election are floating around, but what is going to play a huge role in the next Lok Sabha polls is the Mayawati factor.

Having surprised every analyst, journalist and pollster, not to mention other political parties by leading the Bahujan Samaj Party to a thunderous victory in the UP Assembly polls, Ms Mayawati has strengthened her hold over Uttar Pradesh by recently winning two of the three by-polls in the State.

Poll pundits are surmising that UP’s Bahenji will pick up between 40 and 50 Lok Sabha seats if elections are held within six-nine months, leaving few for the Samajwadi Party, and fewer still for both the BJP and the Congress.

Small wonder then that the Congress High Command, by now weary of the Left’s taunts at the best of times, and its threats to withdraw support, is looking to Mayawati as its biggest ally this time round. The UPA’s most-trusted allies such as the DMK and Lalu Prasad’s RJD will have to yield some seats. If Ms Jayalalitha can break the Progressive Democratic Front in Tamil Nadu, already weakened by Mr Vaiko’s exit, and get Mr Vijaykanth also into the BJP-AIADMK-MDMK fold, the DMK-led alliance will find the going tough.
Unfazed markets

But while everybody talks casually about polls in the short term as a certainty, one sector usually vulnerable to political instability or uncertainty — the equity market — has remained unfazed. After being soft for a couple of sessions, the Sensex jived by 165 points on Tuesday, closing in on the earlier high of 15,868, and clearing it effortlessly on Wednesday. The Sensex’s 600-odd point jig was, of course, on the back of the Federal Reserve’s cut in interest rates on Tuesday by a half percentage point from 5.25 to 4.75 per cent.

Global markets celebrated and India is no exception; the Sensex cruised above 16,300 as jubilant market voices talked once again about the “strong fundamentals” of the Indian economy and how the market was not dependent on external factors. Only a few crestfallen faces — those who must have missed this bit of the rally — cautioned whoever would care to listen about the market being “fully priced”, of looming political uncertainty when elections are announced. During such heady moments, investors and traders have ears only for sweet talk on how the next stop of the Sensex would be beyond 17,500 around Diwali time.

Such a Diwali sweetener would certainly be welcome, but investors should beware of the crackers that might spoil the party.
Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

More Stories on : Politics

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Global accounting?

Remarkable rally

ESOPs and advance tax payment

Treatment of pharma R&D costs

Getting into election mode?

Military Rule and Democracy — How New Delhi should react to neighbourhood regimes

‘Accounting was far from enticing’

Power to unlock