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Agri-Biz & Commodities - Technical Analysis
Palm oil may test resistance



Britney Spears

Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Friday on speculative buying supported by strong showing in CBOT soya oil futures and energy futures. Strong crude oil prices generally fuel demand for palm oil to manufacture bio-diesel. Prospects of healthy exports too are underpinning prices. Markets are also anticipating a fall in production for the month of September, which is going to further add to the bullishness. However, falling open interest in BMD futures warns of lack of participation at higher prices, a warning sign of aggressive longs.

CPO active month contract is moving in line with our expectations. As mentioned earlier, resistance at 2550-60 Malaysian ringgit (MYR) a tonne levels has been taken out opening the way higher. The current price structure is bullish for 2700 MYR/tonne as long as 2598 MYR/tonne holds attempts to decline. Direct rise above 2678 MYR/tonne will be a bullish sign heading for 2725 MYR/tonne. A new impulse began from 1427 MYR/tonne as per the recent wave counts. We are in the fifth wave move of that impulse. We can expect a corrective A-B-C to begin after the current impulse ends. RSI is in the overbought zone indicating that a minor correction is in the offing. Minor Negative divergences are also seen in the indicator cautioning against aggressive longs. The averages in MACD are below the zero line in the indicator bearishness to be intact. Therefore look for palm oil futures to test the resistance levels and correct lower subsequently.

Supports are at MYR 2603, 2545 and 2510. Resistances are at MYR 2678, 2703 and 2761.

Gnanasekar. T

(The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research and also in the advisory panel of Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX). The views expressed in this column are his own and not that of MCX. This analysis is based on the historical price movements and there is risk of loss in trading. He can be reached at gnanasekar_thiagarajan@yahoo.com.)

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