The Hindu Business Line : Buzzing seas lure dry westerlies into trap

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 1 Invading westerlies are gradually expanding their reach farther into the plains of north and central India but a web of land-based cyclonic circulations and a busy Bay of Bengal have conjured up some defence to the southeast and adjoining peninsula.

On the west coast, an offshore trough continues to run from the south Maharashtra coast to Kerala and empty some of its moisture off and on southward from Konkan/Goa. Resultant rains threaten to wash out the second one-day international between Australia and India to be played on Tuesday at Kochi.

Cyclonic circulations have been traced to above Bihar, coastal Andhra Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh. A trough running from Bihar to Telengana in the South and passing through Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh completes the network in the east.This and the offshore trough have combined to prevent the westerlies from achieving no more than sneak a quick look into central and adjoining peninsular India. But satellite picture analysis shows the drying effect having somehow filtered into parts of interior Tamil Nadu.

The westerlies are expected to run into more resistance from the Bay, which continues to maintain an umbilical cord with the much larger expanse of waters in the South China Sea and the west Pacific.

On Monday, Tropical Storm ‘Lekima’ was in the process of crossing into the east China coast while a bigger weather system, possibly a typhoon, is forecast to swagger its way close on its heels across the Philippine Sea. A west-to-southwestward movement of these systems would imply cascading downstream impact on the Bay of Bengal.

Forecasts also indicate the possibility of a migrant circulation growing in strength over the seawaters and even venturing into land to set up a localised east-to-west trough straddling the Himalayan foothills. Importantly, this could set up an interaction with a visiting western disturbance and drive up rain northwest into west Uttar Pradesh.

Meanwhile, IMD said in its update on Monday that the southwest monsoon has withdrawn from most parts of west Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab, Haryana, East Rajasthan and North Arabian Sea.

Model predictions suggested further withdrawal from more parts of northwest India, Rajasthan, some parts of northwest Madhya Pradesh and north Gujarat during the next three days.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast for the south peninsula and Orissa during the four days. A western disturbance moving across the hilly regions of northwest India during the two days will bring isolated to scattered rainfall.

Rain/thundershowers are likely at many places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and coastal Karnataka. Isolated rain is likely over south Konkan, Goa, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha.

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