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G.K. Nair

Kochi, Oct 11

Coffee production, mainly that of robusta,is likely to decline by 10-12 per cent due to incessant rains in the growing areas in Kerala and Karnataka during September.

According to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate for the current season that began this month, production of robusta is likely to be 1,90,250 tonnes and that of arabica 1,00,750 tonnes. “We had heavy rains in September in areas where robustas are grown and they negatively affected the crop. This could push down the output in these regions by 10-12 per cent,” Mr Anil Kumar Bhandari, a coffee planter and former President of UPASI, told Business Line. Besides, white stem borer attack in arabica coffee plantations is also likely to affect the crop, he said.

Meanwhile, drought at a crucial time in Brazil, the flowering season, might result in a decline in their next crop. As a result, production there will not be the projected 52 million bags, he said.

Global production of coffee for the crop year 2006-07 is estimated at 131.3 million bags compared with the previous year’s production of 111.6 million bags, recording an increase of 19.7 million bags. This increase in production was mainly led by Brazil and Vietnam, the two major coffee producing countries in the world. The Brazilian production increased from 36.1 million bags to 46.7 million bags, while Vietnam improved its production from 13.5 million bags to 18.6 million bags, according to Upasi sources.

The crop year 2007-08 has already started in many of the producing countries, and importantly in Brazil, where the latest estimates place the production at around 32.1 million bags. Considering the lower production expected from Brazil, the world production during 2007-08 is estimated at 112 million bags.

As far as domestic production is concerned, the post monsoon estimate of the Coffee Board places coffee production during 2006-07 at 2.88 lakh tonnes compared with 2.74 lakh tonnes in 2005-06. Post blossom estimate for 2007-08, projects the output at 2.91 lakh tonnes.

According to industry sources, coffee consumption in China and some of the East European countries is slowly picking up and that could push up the demand in the coming years. Even the consumption in India, Brazil is on the increase, they said.

“Marginal increase in per capita consumption in India, which is at around 65 gm a year, could substantially increase the demand”, they said.

Indian coffee consumption is mainly confined to Tamil Nadu and Karnataka and the metros at present, they said. A recent market survey conducted by the Coffee Board has shown a shift in the consumer preference for coffee in the urban and rural areas through out the country, they added.

More Stories on : Coffee | Climate & Weather | Karnataka | Kerala

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