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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 25 Wednesday’s ‘low’ over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Tamil Nadu spun westwards to cross the extreme south peninsula and emerged into the warmer waters of southeast Arabian Sea on Thursday.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the system is likely to become marked in the next two days. This is the very system that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) bets would become a strong tropical cyclone.

For the third successive day, the ECMWF persisted with the cyclone forecast, signalling increasing levels of confidence about the eventuality. The warm waters in the basin will fuel the system engine, while the upper-level anticyclone over north India will fan bands of northeasterlies across to turn as helpful northerlies over the west Arabian Sea.

Current meteorological analysis suggests that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the south peninsula, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep would sustain for three more days. Meanwhile, a fresh ‘low’ is shown to break out over southeast Bay of Bengal around Saturday.

This will bring a fresh pulse of heavy showers over the south peninsula from Monday next. The causative system will gradually intensify into a depression and is shown to barrel into the north Tamil Nadu/south coastal Andhra Pradesh coast. This part of the southeast coast, including Chennai, has remained out of bounds for the rampaging rain bands towards the south and extreme south.

This is because cyclonic circulations and ‘lows’ from the Bay have traversed a southerly track pre-determined by the rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Only the stronger ones can hope to break out and carry the ITCZ along in a north-northwest direction targeting the north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts.

Meanwhile, the La Nina has intensified over the equatorial Pacific and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are expected to rule the South China Sea, according to Dr Swadhin Behera, Sub-Leader, Climate Variation Research Programme, at the Frontier Research Centre for Global Change at the Japan Marine Science and Technology Centre.

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Bay system slides into Arabian Sea

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