The Hindu Business Line : Indo-Nigerian ties: Strategic for energy security

If India wants to see real gains from the recent visit of the Prime Minister to Nigeria in terms of energy security, it has to be more pro-active in its approach, backed by hard bargaining, and offer something more than a mere $900-million aid package.

Parvathi Vasudevan

India merely follows where China goes. This is how most Nigerians view the Indian Prime Minister’s trip to their country. Dr Manmohan Singh is the third Indian Prime Minister to travel to Nigeria. The first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, was here in September 1962, two years after Nigeria was granted independence.

The second was Mr A.B. Vajpayee, who came here for the Commonwealth Heads of Governments Meeting. During the completely overlooked visit, he also laid the stone for the office of the Indian High Commission in Abuja on December 6, 2003.

However, Dr Singh is the first Indian Prime Minister to hold bilateral talks. The Financial Standard pointed out in an editorial that the Prime Minister’s visit “raises the stake in the new scramble by non-African countries to gain a foothold on the resource-rich African continent”.

Diplomatic ties

On the evening of his arrival in Abuja on October 14, the Prime Minister, accompanied by his wife, two Ministers of State and senior officials addressed around 250 members of the Indian community. Several Indian firms welcomed the Prime Minister with full-page advertisements in the local dailies.

In a brief and somewhat lacklustre address, the Prime Minister spoke of the commonalities between the two countries and establishment of diplomatic ties even before Nigeria became independent. He added that India was proud of those who have settled in Nigeria and are doing their bit for this country.

He requested his hosts to ensure the safety and security of Indians in this oil-rich economy where kidnappings and physical assault unfortunately are on the increase. Citing India’s current high growth and prospects, he said he would be happier if Indian expats would also participate in India’s nation-building ventures.

At the Indian High Commissioner’s request, the Prime Minister then shook hands with the guests present. He looked tired and appeared distant, perhaps worried about the Indo-US nuclear deal that was very much in the news.

Abuja Declaration

The day witnessed the signing of the Abuja Declaration on Strategic Partnership between India and Nigeria and a number of Memorandum of Understanding in the varied areas of defence, agriculture, power generation, civil aviation, trade and technical services.

There was also an understanding that by April 2008 areas such as the avoidance of double taxation, promoting investments in critical sectors and plans to combat terrorism and drug trafficking would be looked into. The President, Mr Umaru Yar’ Adua, and Dr Manmohan Singh also had a one-on-one discussion.

The highlight of the day was the Prime Minister’s address to a joint session of the Nigerian National Assembly, which was reconvened a day earlier following the two-week recess for Ramadhan.

It touched on a range of themes: the imbalances in the international financial and trading systems, the deleterious effects of debt, the need for sharing experiences on issues such as sustainable development and poverty alleviation as also giving agriculture an industry status so as to efficiently tackle hunger and ensure food security.

The Prime Minister thanked Nigeria for supporting India’s bid for a permanent member status in the proposed expansion of the Security Council even as he called for adequate representation from Africa in the Security Council.

Many here are uncertain of the impact of the Prime Minister’s address. The members of Nigeria’s Lower House were agitated about the misdoings of the Speaker: they had in fact planned to boycott the session, but were persuaded not to do so.

The Senators, on their part, were busy with the screening of ministerial and ambassadorial nominees and were awaiting the first budget presentation by the new President. From their perspective, these were more critical than listening to a ‘course on economics’ or on the need to strengthen Indo-Nigerian relations.

The next day, the Prime Minister travelled to South Africa to participate in the proceedings of the second IBSA Meet. Reviewing the visit, The Guardian argued, tongue-in-cheek, that given Nigeria’s poor record in performing even “the simplest task, like diversifying its economy, we are not miffed that Dr Singh headed straight to Pretoria”.

The Financial Standard observed that “Indo-Nigerian bilateral trade is warped” and that India should redress the imbalance by “transfer of technology in the key areas of knowledge economy and biotechnology”.

An Assessment

At a first glance, this visit was crucial for India. India’s desire to maintain 9-10 per cent growth would call for increased need for energy, particularly oil. By 2025 India could well be the world’s third largest importer of oil and gas. This explains the Prime Minister’s candid admission to the Nigerian Assembly that the Indo-Nigerian partnership is “for energy security”.

Maybe, India hopes to get a better toe-hold on the ever-expanding oil region of West Africa through the good offices of Nigeria. But this is an uphill task. For, India is competing with the other Asian contender for Africa’s oil — China, which is already well entrenched in Africa.

In contrast to the Chinese approach of offering massive assistance with focus on infrastructure, India’s offer of $900 million as aid to Nigeria is the least optimal. This is especially so from the perspective of governance.

Now the hard ball-game of diplomacy has begun. India is reported to have failed to elicit Nigeria’s support for the Indian Finance Minister’s bid to be the chairman of the International Monetary and Financial Committee.

In this context, the question whether the visit by the Indian Prime Minister will change things for the better for India is anybody’s guess. In the real world of diplomacy, a pro-active approach, backed by hard bargaining, is the name of the game. Nothing more, nothing less.

(The author, a former Africa specialist, University of Mumbai, resides in Abuja. She can be reached at < parvathivasudevan@gmail.com>)

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