The Hindu Business Line : GDP growth slows to 8.9% in Q2

The economy has registered a growth of 8.9 per cent in the second quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal. This is below the 10.2 per cent year-on-year increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the corresponding quarter of 2006-07 and also the 9.3 per cent growth of the first quarter of this fiscal.

“As anticipated, the overall growth has moderated”, admitted the Union Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram. In the same breadth, however, he noted that the 8.9 per cent figure was close to the nine per cent level as earlier predicted.

“I am still confident that growth for the whole year will be pretty close to nine per cent”, the Minister added.

First half growth

The GDP growth for the first half of 2007-08 works out to 9.1 per cent (against 9.9 per cent for April-September 2006-07), as per the estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) here on Friday. The overall growth rate for 2006-07 amounted to 9.4 per cent, while it was nine per cent in 2005-06, 7.5 per cent in 2004-05 and 8.5 per cent in 2003-04.

Mr Chidambaram made it clear that the Government was not looking at growth hitting double digits this fiscal. But even if it turns out in the region of nine per cent, it would cap a five-year dream run, unprecedented in the recorded history of the country’s economy.

Deceleration

The moderation in GDP increase during the latest quarter was mainly due to lower growth of manufacturing (8.6 per cent against 12.7 per cent for July-September 2006). A similar deceleration was reported for ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (7.3 per cent against 8.1 per cent), ‘trade, hotels, transport and communications’ (11.4 per cent against 14.2 per cent), ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ (10.6 per cent against 11.1 per cent) and ‘community, social and personal services’ (7.8 per cent against 8.3 per cent).

The only sectors to buck the trend were ‘agriculture’ (which grew 3.6 per cent during July-September 2007, against 2.9 per cent) and ‘mining and quarrying’ (7.7 per cent versus 3.9 per cent). Construction, too, maintained its last year’s corresponding growth rate of 11.1 per cent.

Investment rates

Mr Chidambaram attributed the decline in manufacturing growth mainly to segments such as consumer durables. However, he based his overall optimism for the economy on the sustained investment rates, as measured by the ratio of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to GDP. This number (at constant 1999-2000 prices) stood at 30.3 per cent for July-September 2007, which was higher than the 28.6 per cent for July-September 2006 and 29.6 per cent for April-June 2006.

“The high GFCF rate of 30.3 per cent shows that buoyancy in investment remains intact and investment continues to be the driver of growth. It gives me the confidence that the year will end with a GDP growth pretty close to nine per cent”, the Finance Minister added.