The Hindu Business Line : Models show good build-up to monsoon

Seasonal forecasts made available by two reputed international weather models for the February-July period indicate ‘good build-up’ right from pre-monsoon period to onset of the southwest monsoon later this year.

This will be made possible by the prevailing La Nina conditions that have become firmly established in the equatorial Pacific, according to forecasts by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction and Society at the University of Columbia and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

SUMMER RAINS

The proceedings would have been triggered during March-April-May when the southern peninsula is tipped to receive above-normal rainfall from tropical moisture forcing from the western Pacific and the Bay of Bengal, says the IRI.

Neighbouring Sri Lanka is forecast to get blasted even earlier, i.e. from February-March-April, which is likely to touch off some activity over the peninsular tip.

In this manner, the entire South-East Asian region, including Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, would have been covered by the rampaging rain currents proceeding from the east.

ONSET QUARTER

March-April-May will again witness normal to above normal rainfall over the west coast and adjoining peninsula as well as over the country’s northeast. This, according to IRI forecasts, should go to signal the onset of monsoon, with the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal arms of monsoon reporting themselves at their respective ports of call.

The rains are predicted to intensify and progress through April-May-June with above-normal precipitation indicated for the northeast as well as central India. The rest of the country will receive normal rainfall during the quarter with no deficit indicated for any region.

MODEL CONVERGENCE

May-June-July, the last quarter for which the January-based forecasts are available, shows above normal rain for central India, northwest India and the northeast.

It will be normal for the rest of the country, with no deficits being shown for any region.

ECMWF predictions (December-based) indicate good precipitation for south peninsula right from January-February-March. Rains will continue through the next quarter (February-March-April) with the Bay of Bengal too joining the party.

In this manner, plains in east India will also receive some rainfall.

ECMWF graphics too signal likely onset of monsoon in the March-April-May quarter with the west coast and adjoining peninsula and the northeast receiving good precipitation.

April-May-June may witness a rush of the rain belt into central, east, northwest and north India.