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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan. 24

Weather in north and northwest is expected to largely behave during the crucial February-March period when ‘cold to average cold’ conditions are expected to prevail in the region.

But the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has warned of temperature ‘flare ups’ in isolated hot spots in southeast Rajasthan, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Prospects of the rabi wheat crop are singularly dependent on ideal weather conditions in the growing areas, especially where late sowing has been undertaken. Projections by the UK Met Office indicate uniformly cold to normal conditions over the entire belt.

Rainfall will also be normal to near normal over the region. The ‘cold spots’ will be spread over Gujarat, north peninsular India and the extreme south peninsula, say the ECMWF predictions.

Meanwhile, cold wave to severe cold wave conditions continued to prevail over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan, Delhi and west Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of west Uttar Pradesh, where minimum temperatures are below normal by 4-8 degree Celsius during the 24-hours ending Thursday morning.

The present scenario suggests that they are likely to continue during the next 1-2 days. Ground frost conditions are likely over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, north Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh during the next two nights.

The sustained cold snap with rains to the eastern quadrant of the country is being attributed to an unusually vigorous jet stream, a belt of strong winds, settling to the south of the Himalayas. This, in turn, could be traced to the strong ongoing cold wave over central Asia.

Given the strong jet stream right across southwest and South Asia, it would seem that the next week will bring more unsettled weather and even a potential for surprise, says Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com. ‘Spotty’ but locally heavy rainfall is predicted to continue over east and north-east India going into the next week. The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) say the rains would linger on until at least February 8.

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