The Hindu Business Line : Cold snap in northwest as rains lash east

The non-seasonal rain feast over east and northeast India since the early weekend continued as scattered to fairly widespread rainfall lashed coastal Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, the north eastern States and Sikkim during the past 24 hours ending Sunday morning. The current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the ongoing rainfall activity over the north eastern States is likely to continue during the next 3-4 days, says an India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

Rain occurred over most places in Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa; many places in Assam, Meghalaya, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and at a few places in Arunachal Pradesh. Isolated rain events were also reported from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over coastal Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and the North-East. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and coastal Andhra Pradesh. Isolated to scattered precipitation is likely over the Northeastern States and Gangetic West Bengal right until January 31.

COLD WAVE

A prevailing western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away north eastwards. Cold north westerly winds trailing the system have enveloped the north and north-west.

Cold wave to severe cold wave conditions are prevailing over many parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch. Cold wave conditions are also prevailing over many of Maharashtra and some parts of west Madhya Pradesh. Ground frost conditions are likely over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan during the next 2-3 nights.

WESTERLY SYSTEM

Current meteorological analysis suggests that cold wave conditions are likely to continue during the next two days. Some respite can be had with the drift-in of moist air and clouding associated with the next west disturbance. The system has already dropped anchor over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir and is likely to move east-north-eastwards and hit the north-west border in another two days.

A strong upper air trough is seen rolling in from southwest Asia and parking itself into position over Afghanistan-Pakistan around February 2. Associated west disturbance will cause snow/rainfall over the hills and plains of India’s northwest over the next few days. But the trough may yield place to a seasonal ridge (both keep occupying the vanguard position periodically) in quick succession, which may lead to drying up of the north and northwest for sometime.