The Hindu Business Line : Dry winter a legacy of La Nina year: Expert

Thiruvananthapuram, Jan. 31 The dry winter conditions (unlike wet monsoons) that north and northwest India experienced this season was only to be expected during a La Nina year, according to experts.

The northwest Indian region usually suffers from drier conditions during the La Nina years, according to Dr Swadhin K. Behera, Sub-leader, Climate Variations Research Programme at the Tokyo-based Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC).

DRY ALL ACROSS

Citing from rainfall anomaly maps for the most recent two La Nina events, Dr Behera informed Business Line that not only northwest India but also most parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran suffer drier conditions during La Nina years.

“Although I am not aware of any study that links La Nina with the number of seasonal western disturbances, I think we get less number of these disturbances during La Nina years,” Dr Behera said.

LESS RAIN EVENTS

In any case, our model has predicted less than normal rain for the December-January-February season. The temperature will remain normal or colder than normal as per these predictions. But it might get warmer than normal in March-April, he added.

Meanwhile on Thursday, cold wave to severe cold wave conditions continued to prevail over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh. The current meteorological analysis suggests that present scenario is likely to continue during the next 24 hours only, said an India Meteorological Department forecast.

MERCURY REVERSAL

Subsequently, with the likely change in wind pattern, night temperatures are likely to increase from Saturday onwards leading to abatement of cold wave conditions.

Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest that a western disturbance is likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread precipitation over northwest India for three days from Saturday.

Snowfall is likely at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Rajasthan. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Punjab, north Haryana, Chandigarh and west Madhya Pradesh.

RAIN FORECAST

Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over coastal Orissa and West Bengal. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over the region during the next 24 hours and isolated thereafter. Thundershowers have been forecast for coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.

Ground frost conditions are likely over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan during Friday night. Forecast for two days from Sunday said fairly widespread snowfall is likely over the western Himalayan region. Isolated to scattered rain/thundershower is likely over northwest India, Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh.

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