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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, March 6 In a sudden shift to prevailing weather in the north and northwest, two incoming western disturbances are forecast to empty their contents in snow and rain over the next 10 days with varying intensity.

The immediate upshot is that there will be a fall in maximum day temperatures; but a nagging worry is the prospect of hailstorms which moisture incursion during the vulnerable ‘March heat’ phase is fraught with. This will have implications for the standing Rabi wheat.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Ensemble Forecast System of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy are near-unanimous in their outlook, which depicts upper layer westerlies dipping so far down as to scoop up moisture from the Arabian Sea off Gujarat. This is expected to trigger isolated to scattered rainfall over the northwest over the next few days.

The incoming western disturbance lay over north Pakistan on Thursday and an induced cyclonic circulation over Punjab and neighbourhood. In the South, a cyclonic circulation lay over Lakshadweep area and the adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.

An induced low-pressure area tossed up by the westerlies has been shown to meander to the east and graze the Indo-Gangetic plains as well. Coincidentally, easterly waves powered by cyclonic whirls would be active in the South, with rains projected to extend into north peninsular and central India.

On Thursday, maximum temperatures were above normal by 6-8 degree Celsius over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and by 3-5 degree Celsius over the plains of northwest and east India. Current meteorological analysis suggests that the present maximum temperature scenario is likely to continue over above region during the next two to three days only.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next two days and would scale up thereafter. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during next 24 hours.

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Moisture incursion from westerlies likely

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