The Hindu Business Line : Higher yield may push up jeera output

Mumbai, March 9Higher yield and favourable weather may push up jeera (cumin) production by 26 per cent to 2.11 lakh tonnes in 2008 against 42,304 lt to 1.67 lt last year, despite many farmers moving away from its cultivation in Rajasthan. Production last year was hit due to delay in sowing and floods in Gujarat.

“Though farmers in Rajasthan have shifted to better remunerative crops such as rape seed and guarseed, better realisation has attracted many Gujarat farmers. The area covered in Gujarat has increased 10-15 per cent,” said Mr Faiyaz Hudani, research associate, Kotak Commodities. Yield may rise to 480 kg per hectare (380 kg/ha). Extreme cold weather last month in Rajasthan may reduce the yield by 20-30 per cent, however, the current weather condition is favourable for the crop, he added.

The demand for jeera ranges between 1.80 lt and 20 lt.

“We expect the demand to be 1.90 lt in 2008. Demand will be firm due to stockist interest and significant export,” he said. The consumption may increase 13 per cent to 1.65 lt (1.45 lt) in 2008 supported by a fall in prices. New crops have hit the market, but their quality is a cause for concern.

Exports

The area under jeera cultivation in Syria, Iran and Turkey, the major producers, have fallen substantially besides lower inventory. The three countries export 90 per cent of their produce. India consumes 90 per cent of its production. “Area under Jeera cultivation is expected to be low in Iran and Turkey as farmers have shifted to wheat and barley due to better price realisation. Export may remain flat at about 25,000 tonnes (26,000 tonnes) in 2008,” said Kotak Commodity report. The rupee-dollar volatility may hamper exports.

Price trend

A steep rise of 52 per cent in the closing stocks will exert pressure on the price line. The inventory in 2008 is expected to be 64,354 tonnes.

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