The Hindu Business Line : Wet weather may last through this week

Thiruvananthapuram, March 16 The wet session in Tamil Nadu and Kerala is set to spill over and get stretched through the week ending Sunday next (March 23), according to forecasts by international models.

The proceedings are set to peak around that date when, unusually for this time of the year, a strong cyclonic circulation is forecast to careen its way into the Kerala-Karnataka coast before exploding into widespread rains.

Lending credence to the unfolding event is the Extreme Forecast Index of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), which sees the relative humidity being ratcheted up to around 100 per cent along the region.

PARENT TROUGH

The parent trough of ‘low’ would become conspicuous at least four days in advance (by March 19) around the southeast Arabian Sea, off the Kerala coast. It would get strengthened thanks to strong easterlies blowing in residual moisture from the southwest Bay of Bengal.

The system is shown to move north into the warmer waters of central Arabian Sea, only to get wrapped into the larger trough of low linking the west Pacific.

The added moisture supply will cause the system to spin faster and gain in strength, before being propelled into the mainland and soaking it.

The system would get weakened as it negotiates the land, and would be guided into the eastern coast where it is predicted to die out. It would bring along a progressively thinning wet cover across peninsular India.

SECOND ROUND

Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu is awaiting a second round of torrential rains as another easterly wave bides its time in the outer seas. South coastal Tamil Nadu is likely to receive scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers with isolated heavy falls during the next four days. Scattered showers are likely over the rest of the State and south Kerala during next two days, which will intensify, thereafter.

Rain or thundershowers are also likely at a few places over Lakshadweep and south interior Karnataka during next 24 hours and isolated, thereafter. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Nicobar Islands and north interior Karnataka

ENABLING FEATURES

The enabling meteorological features are as follows: On Sunday, a trough of low lay extended from Commorin area to southwest Bay off the Tamil Nadu coast. The other trough over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast and east-central Arabian Sea too persisted.

Over land, a trough ran out from Kerala to Vidarbha through interior Karnataka and Marathwada. A cyclonic circulation lay over madhya Maharashtra, and adjoining Marathwada. Another circulation lay over Lakshadweep area and neighbourhood.

The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in its update on Sunday that overnight rainfall of varying intensity was reported from south interior Karnataka and Kerala, at many places over Lakshadweep, Tamil Nadu, coastal and north interior Karnataka. The stations recording heavy rainfall (in cm) were:

Palakkad-10, Humchadakatte (Shimoga), Bangalore Airport-9 each; Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari), Alapuzha-8 each; and Cochin International Airport, Thrissur, Sravanabelagola (Hassan), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli), Tuticorin-7 each.

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