The Hindu Business Line : Gyrations on the openness-stability grid

With ‘openness’ on the X-axis and ‘stability’ on the Y, plot each nation’s coordinates on the graph. What you get, when you connect the dots, will be a J shape, says Ian Bremmer in The J Curve ( www.landmarkonthenet.com ). “Nations to the left of the dip in the J are less open; nations to the right are more open. Nations higher on the graph are more stable; those that are lower are less stable.”

Stability, on the left, is dependent on individual leaders, explains Bremmer. On the right, the institutions — such as ‘parliaments independent of the executive, judiciaries independent of both, non-governmental organisations, labour unions, and citizen groups’ — play a major role in ensuring stability.

The author speaks of two components in stability, namely, ‘the state’s capacity to withstand shocks and its ability to avoid producing them.’

Anyone can feel the difference between a ride in a car with good shock absorbers and in one that has no shock absorbers, he says. “Stability fortifies a nation to withstand political, economic, and social turbulence. Stability enables a nation to remain a nation.”

Gauging openness

Openness, according to Bremmer, is a measure of the extent to which a nation is in harmony with the crosscurrents of globalisation — ‘the processes by which people, ideas, information, goods, and services cross international borders at unprecedented speed.’

To gauge openness, he tosses a series of questions, as follows: “How many books written in a foreign language are translated into the local language? What percentage of a nation’s citizens have access to media outlets whose signals originate from beyond their borders? How many are able to make an international phone call? How much direct contact do local people have with foreigners? How free are a nation’s citizens to travel abroad? How much foreign direct investment is there in the country? How much local money is invested outside the country?”

Openness also refers to the flow of information and ideas within a country’s borders, adds Bremmer. “Are citizens free to communicate with one another? Do they have access to information about events in other regions of the country? … How transparent are the processes of local and national government? Are there free flows of trade across regions within the state? Do citizens have access to, and influence in, the process of governance?”

Shifts and stability

Constant shifts happen on the J curve, as reactions to events. For instance, a country travels down the curve when there are street protests and widespread strikes, with international media attention.

If, in response, the state were to declare martial law and gag the press, stability apparently scores at the cost of openness. “Drought conditions in India, a substantial move in energy prices that alters Nigeria’s growth prospects, an IMF loan for Argentina, or an earthquake in Pakistan can all provoke a sudden shift in these countries’ stability at every level of openness.”

The book studies 12 countries, categorised as: The far left side of the J curve (North Korea, Cuba and Iraq); the slide toward instability (Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia); the depths of the J curve (South Africa and Yugoslavia); and the right side of the curve (Turkey, Israel and India). China gets a separate chapter that focusses on its ‘dilemma’.

Talking about India, Bremmer says the possible unrest produced by the widening gap between the rich and the poor in the wake of economic growth can pose a threat to the nation’s long-term position on the right side of the J curve. “This agent of socio-economic change could exacerbate divisions between Indians of different social stations,” he cautions.

“The elements that make up a stability based on openness are not bricks, and such a stability cannot be built like a wall,” observes the author. “Representative government and all its moving parts form a living organism” — an organism that needs to be nourished by everybody who is going to benefit from it.

The right side of the J curve, in which India is placed, is not a destination, but a process, clarifies Bremmer. Turkey, Israel and India have all survived threats to the viability of their open, representative systems of governance, he notes. “All three may face those challenges in the future. None of them has yet achieved anything that can’t be undone.”

Important insights.

D. MURALI

http://BookPeek.blogspot.com

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