The Hindu Business Line : On political volte face and changing equations

The DMK’s sudden shift in stance on the Hogenakkal issue as much as the changing equations at the State level indicate that the various political parties are moving into election mode. And the Cabinet reshuffle seems to be a signal from the ruling coalition that it will not condone non-performance, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT

High security at Hogenakkal... The dramatic turnaround in stance on the Hogenakkal project has clearly been driven by political compulsions.

The dramatic turnaround in the stance of the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Mr M. Karunanidhi, on the Hogenakkal drinking water supply project, coupled with the changes effected in the Council of Ministers at the Centre, where the non-performers were shown the door, is a firm signal that the United Progressive Alliance Government at the Centre is already in election mode.

After Tamil Nadu had responded in a similar measure to the various Karnataka groups’ strong posturing on the Hogenakkal issue, motivated, no doubt, by the Assembly elections to be held in the State next month, Mr Karunanidhi’s announcement that the scheme was being halted for the time being took almost everybody by surprise. Though he claimed that his decision was based on the meaninglessness of allowing innocent lives and citizens’ property in both the States to be threatened by violence, particularly when there was no government in place in Karnataka to take a call on the issue, it is obvious he has bowed to pressure from the Congress high command.

And, despite his denying that he acted in response to a ‘request’ from the Congress, it made political sense for the DMK patriarch to hold his fire on Hogenakkal for the time being. It is a sad commentary of our times that political leaders — this time around, the BJP leadership in Karnataka — keep finding new ways to rake up caste, communal or regional sentiments. On the Hogenakkal issue, while Mr Yeddyurappa, who hopes to become the next Karnataka Chief Minister if the BJP comes to power in the State, had the initiator’s ‘advantage’, very soon he was joined by both former prime minister Mr Deve Gowda, and former Karnataka chief minister Mr S. M. Krishna, once again the Congress hopeful for the Chief Minister’s chair.

Violence erupted, rallies were held, vehicles damaged, cinema houses attacked, hotels and restaurants ransacked and people beaten up because they were in the wrong State with the wrong regional lineage.

If Mr Karunanidhi’s real intent was to put a halt to the violence and save innocent people from becoming victims, it indeed deserves praise. But, reading between the lines, and despite his denials, everybody gathered that he had made a quick political calculation and lent a helping hand to an ally and UPA’s principal party, the Congress.

Obviously it was not in the UPA’s interest to throw an important State such as Karnataka into the hands of the Opposition, be it the BJP or the Janata Dal(S).

Political rivals stunned

While this came as a surprise to the stars of the Tamil film industry, who had only the previous day shown solidarity for ‘Tamil Nadu’s cause’ by participating in a protest, the DMK’s political rivals were furious at this political googly from the DMK chief. The AIADMK General-Secretary, Ms Jayalalithaa, lost no time in accusing Mr Karunanidhi of having betrayed the people of Tamil Nadu and proclaimed grandly that he had no right to “remain the chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, even for a minute”.

His one-time confidante and now bitter foe Vaiko has lambasted Mr Karunanidhi for “disrespecting” the feelings of the people of Tamil Nadu and has announced yet another protest rally. It makes one’s head spin to think of the number of man-hours the country could save and gainfully employ if the aam admi, for a change, protested against all the protests.

The AIADMK and MDMK leaders were, of course, aghast that by clearing the ground for the Congress before the Karnataka polls Mr Karunanidhi had only come closer to the Congress chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, ensuring that the cracks the opposition hopes to see in the UPA (which bears the label of the Democratic Progressive Front and is led by the DMK in Tamil Nadu) show no sign of developing in this State. Without the Front’s demise in Tamil Nadu, Ms Jayalalithaa has only a slim chance of returning to power in the State.

Now that Mr Karunanidhi has done Ms Gandhi a huge favour by creating an easier playing field for her party in the Karnataka polls, he can sit back, relax and wait his turn to reap the benefit when the time is right, as that is exactly how politics and politicians work. After all, didn’t the Congress high command immediately respond to his request to take away the Communications and IT portfolio from Mr Dayanidhi Maran when there was a rift in the relations between the Karunanidhi and Maran families?

Reshuffle of Ministers

Coming to the Cabinet reshuffle at the Centre, and the induction, at long last, of two young and fresh faces in the council of ministers, Ms Gandhi was honest enough to admit that she would have loved to see son Rahul in the Cabinet, but the latter declined the offer. Now Mr Jyotiraditya Scindia has been made a Minister of State in charge of Communications and IT and Mr Jitin Prasada has been given the Steel portfolio. Of course, there is heartache in Rajasthan that Mr Sachin Pilot, the son of the late Rajesh Pilot, a Rajiv Gandhi confidante, has not been given a berth.

But what is significant is that five ministers have been shown the door. Whether their non-performance is the real reason or other “inconvenient factors” have triggered their ouster, it is a welcome sign that finally the leaders have understood that the voters deserve some respect and that those who don’t carry out the work assigned to them can lose their jobs, whether in politics or in the corporate world.

And now a recap; first a Rs 60,000-crore bonanza for farmers in Budget 2008, to let them know they too matter in an economy that is, or was, charging ahead at an impressive 9 per cent. A reshuffle in the Council of Ministers to send out a message that the UPA leadership is serious about punishing non-performance and has more than octogenarians or septuagenarians in its talent pool to appoint as ministers.

Curiously, the fortunes of another Rajiv loyalist Mr Mani Shankar Aiyar too continue to be on the wane; after Petroleum, he has now lost one more portfolio — Youth Affairs and Sports — to former Chief Election Commissioner, Mr M. S. Gill. Apparently, he still paying the price for having ignored the request of the most important ‘youth’ in the Congress party a couple of years ago!

On tenterhooks

While the BJP, powered by Mr Narendra Modi’s recent triumph in Gujarat, is in a resurgent mood, and Mr Advani has bought peace with Mr Modi by announcing that after him it will be Mr Modi’s turn to be the party’s prime ministerial candidate, the Left too is doing its bit to keep the Congress leadership on tenterhooks.

At a recent party conclave, the CPI(M) General-Secretary, Mr Prakash Karat, once more raked up the idea of a Third Front that will need to depend neither on the Congress nor the BJP. Summer is already on us and, with most States reeling under power shortages, the UPA might make yet another bid for pushing the civil nuclear deal with the US, as nuclear power seems to be the only option that can rapidly address India’s growing demand for power.

Any move in this direction, however, will only speed up the next general election. As for preparedness, it is not only the Congress high command and the DMK chief who are making strategic allowances for each other. Even in Bihar, the RJD and the LJP of Mr Ram Nivas Paswan are making moves to bury the hatchet, if not at the topmost level, where bruised egos are yet to heal, but at the secondary and tertiary levels. Whether our politicians learn the lessons of good, efficient and corruption-free governance or not, they are learning poll arithmetic quickly enough, especially with elections in the offing.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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