The Hindu Business Line : Nargis prowls Bay waters, but stays still

Bangkok, April 29 The Category-4 tropical cyclone, Nargis, remained practically stationary over the west central and adjoining southwest and southeast Bay of Bengal around 2.30 pm on Wednesday, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

The estimated central pressure of the dangerous storm was 980 millibars, and the satellite imagery showed broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds surrounding it. Nargis was likely to intensify further and move slowly in a northerly direction for some more time and then northeastwards.

MAY STRENGHEN

Nargis may be threatening to reach the super cyclone (Category-5) threshold, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy observed that recent satellite imagery showed a marked reduction in deep convection near the low level circulation centre.

This change in storm structure has produced some weakening, accentuated further by some drier air originating from hot north and central India and wrapping in toward the storm centre from the northwestern periphery of the circulation.

But high ocean heat content and an eventual improvement in upper-level conditions, including better ventilation at the top and lower vertical wind shear, are still expected to produce intensification through the next 48 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear should induce some weakening.

LIKELY LANDFALL

The JTWC assessed that Nargis should kick up maximum sustained wind speeds of 100 knots (185 mph) gusting to 125 knots (231 kmph) over the next 48 hours. But the landfall over the Arakan coast of Myanmar around May 2 should see it huff and puff a little, before decelerating.

On Wednesday, the IMD warned of strong wind speeds reaching 45-55 kmph along and off the north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during the next 24 hours. Squally winds speeding to 45-55 kmph is also likely over Andaman islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours.

The sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts and around the Andaman islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.

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