The Hindu Business Line : ‘Nargis’ may have switched busy season on

Bangkok, May 2 The very severe cyclonic storm, Nargis, might just have switched on the busy season in the Bay of Bengal if emerging signals from international model predictions are to be believed.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy said that Nargis had picked in speed for lateral movement, and had tracked eastward at 10 knots (18 kmph) overnight on Friday. During this phase, the monster storm developed a well-formed ‘eye’ extending to 10 nautical miles (18 km) diameter, which indicated scaling up in terms of intensity.

The regional multi-hazard early warning system at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) here said that the landfall over southern Myanmar could be delayed until Saturday morning. Nargis should be plowing the Myanmar landscape even as this is being written, but would still be able to churn the Bay waters with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicting that another weather system may be developing to the south of Andaman Seas around May 11.

SOUTHERLY BIAS

The southerly bias of the brewing circulation makes sense since the Bay waters in the higher latitudes have already been scorched by the torrential rainfall that Nargis generated in its wake.

This would have cooled down the sea surface, and it would be at least a week before it recouped its energy.

According to the ECMWF predictions, the wind speeds in the extreme southeast Bay are seen peaking around May 10 when the sea surface temperatures should provide the perfect foil for the waters to toss up a cyclonic circulation.

This would be eagerly watched for signs of growth and/or precipitating the onset of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman Islands, the first outpost in the Indian territorial waters for the monsoon caravan to pass by.

Here in Bangkok, the Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD) is expecting the monsoon to arrive at least a week before the normal onset date of May 15 over the country, Dr Somchai Baimoung, Director of the Weather Forecast Bureau, told Business Line. Topographically speaking, Thailand is within calling distance from the Andaman Seas.

ANDAMANS SOAKED

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), Nargis had lain centered over east-central Bay of Bengal, about 200 km west-southwest of Pathein (Myanmar), on Friday morning. Its passage would cause rain or thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 48 hours.

Gale wind speeds reaching 60-70 kmph is likely over the islands and the adjoining seas.

The sea condition will be rough to ‘high’. Fishermen are advised not to venture out.

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions continued to prevail over isolated pockets of Vidarbha, east Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh. For the third day running, Khajuraho in Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45.2{ring}C on Friday.

A passing western disturbance over northwest India is forecast to bring dust storms or thunderstorms bringing temporary relief from the prevailing hot weather conditions in the region, an IMD update said. Scattered to fairly widespread rains or thundershowers are likely to continue over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next three days.