The Hindu Business Line : Bay hums again as Myanmar quivers

Thiruvananthapuram, May 4 A vast stretch of ocean waters from the west-central Pacific, the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal is humming in anticipation of a chain of unsettled weather events linking each to the other.

The chain would get anchored in the east (west-central Pacific) and the west (Bay of Bengal) ends as two significant weather systems blow up in the respective seas over the next few days, according to model forecasts.

Implications to the southwest monsoon will be closely watched, more so when the buzz gets louder around the Andaman Seas in the larger Bay of Bengal basin. The circulation being spun off here could set the stage for the onset of seasonal rains in the region.

TARGET MYANMAR?

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the low-pressure area taking shape here could strengthen and go on to target the Myanmar coast already reeling from the impact of tropical cyclone Nargis.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy traced Nargis to 213 km northeast of Yangon, the Myanmar capital, at 8.30 pm on Saturday. The storm was weakening rapidly as it prepared to ram into the rugged terrain along the Myanmar-Thailand border. But it has been put under watch for signs of regeneration.

At the other end of the pan-ocean storm chain, the system brewing to the east of the Philippines is expected to become a strong typhoon. The wind flow patterns normal for this time of the year could steer the two storms in a north-northeast direction.

This is what promises to set up an encore to Nargis, which had hollered off the southeast coast of India choosing Myanmar to the east for a landfall. The brewing typhoon would bear down on the Philippines, before being guided away to the northeast.

‘HEAT LOW’

Over the Indian landmass, a sustained heat wave helped define the contours of the ‘heat low’ over western Rajasthan as the mean sea level pressure dropped down to 998 millibars on Sunday. With a large footprint extending west from Africa, the heat low plays a major role in driving the monsoon current into the mainland.

The heating has propagated to east and southeast India, according to an update from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday. Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and north Rajasthan.

They are likely to hold during next 48 hours and may extend into some more parts of the region and even central India. The heating is manifest over the coastal areas of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu as well. The highest maximum temperature of 46.2{ring}C on Sunday was recorded at Hissar (Haryana).

The heat low will grow to cover Balochistan and extend onward to Iran and further into Northern Africa. When full blown, it will straddle the South Asian landmass with its core centred over Jacobabad in Pakistan.

In India, the heat low will be anchored in West Rajasthan, with the contiguous heat trough extending southwards to the peninsular tip.

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