The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon sets in over Andaman Sea; ‘low’ soon

Thiruvananthapuram, May 10 India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared that the southwest monsoon has set in over parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, the Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea on Saturday. The northern limit of the monsoon passed through Nancowrie, and conditions were favourable for its further advance over some more parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea during next two days.

Importantly, the IMD cited numerical prediction models to suggest that a low-pressure area may be developing over the North Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around Monday.

TROPICAL STORM

This jells with the forecasts maintained for days together by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This `low’ will help further speed up the progress of the monsoon to cover more parts of the Bay of Bengal over the next few days.

According to ECMWF, the `low’ could well go on to set up another tropical storm (depression) in the Bay of Bengal with a landfall indicated over Bangladesh around May 18.

What goes to rule out the southeast coast of India any impact from a major weather system brewing in the Bay for a second successive time this season is the fact that the `low’ is embedded into the deep westerly system.

This `locks up’ the system to some extent, restricting the movement to either the north or the northeast, and this is precisely why Bangladesh will take a hit this time.

Along with Bangladesh, Myanmar too would have to contend with the threat of heavy rains from the system, coming at a time when the cyclone-stricken country is struggling to limp back to normal. But proximity to land might just prevent the system from intensifying to cyclonic strength, saving Bangladesh the blushes.

TYPHOON BREWING

Another factor at play in this context is the brewing typhoon in the nearby South China Sea, which may drag a bulk of the southwesterlies to itself, limiting the feed to the Bay system.

This system is also embedded into the same westerly system located to the northeast of the Bay and is, therefore, predicted to move in the northeast direction.

In the meantime, the Arabian Sea is also predicted to warm up, with wind speeds picking around the next weekend and the Gujarat coast seeing some action. This could proceed to prepare the ground for the onset of the Arabia Sea arm of the monsoon in due course.