The Hindu Business Line : A gala BJP debut in South

The BJP’s victory in Karnataka is well-deserved; it was the aggrieved party that was tricked once again by the JD (S) in the revolving chief ministership game, and on that count alone it deserved to win. The most important outcome of this election will be Lok Sabha polls as scheduled and not earlier, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

The BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, Mr B. S. Yeddyurappa…All set to form the government?

The saffron dawn in Karnataka continues the tale of a resurgent BJP. The BJP’s first decisive victory in the South — even though it has fallen short of a simple majority by a mere three seats — can be attributed to multiple factors.

The first takeaway from this election is that the voters of Karnataka have rewarded the aggrieved BJP and punished the Janata Dal (S) for its treachery. Also, the strategists and managers of the party, primarily Mr Arun Jaitley — what an asset he has proved to be for the BJP — deserve congratulations for steering the party through turbulent times faced barely a couple of years ago, to deliver its first decisive victory in the south.

The other karmayogi of the party clearly is the Gujarat Chief Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, who not only re-delivered Gujarat through a thumping victory to the BJP last year, but also proved to be such an effective campaigner in Karnataka.

He had perceptibly softened his Hindutva stance in Karnataka compared to his shrill pitch in the Gujarat Assembly elections, and obviously that too must have been a well-thought-out strategy.

For one thing, the Karnataka electorate would not have embraced his saffron mantra with the same passion that the electorate of Gujarat did. Two, Mr Modi is now obviously enlarging his political space.

With the BJP’s next prime ministerial candidate, Mr L. K. Advani, having firmly stated that after him it will be Mr Modi who will be the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate for future elections, he has to carve out an image for himself that is more acceptable to the BJP’s allies on the national stage.

Both the BJP and the Congress have finally accepted the reality that single-party rule at the national level will not be possible at least for the next few elections.

Within sniffing distance of power at Delhi in the next General Elections, the BJP will now have to project at the national-level leaders with whom politicians such as the Telugu Desam Party’s Chandrababu Naidu or the national Conference’s Farooq Abdullah can do business.

They did so with Mr Vajpayee, and while trying to fit into that role Mr Advani found himself in such huge trouble for his Jinnah remarks.

Anyway, returning to Karnataka, the BJP’s victory is well-deserved; it was the aggrieved party that was tricked once again by the JD (S) in the revolving chief ministership game, and on that count alone it deserved to win. During the last couple of years, Karnataka has seen a dismal state of governance, and so the development mantra sung by the BJP campaigners led by Mr Modi has really gone home.

Mr B. S. Yeddyurappa has rightly said development will be his first priority, and he deserves the support of the principal Opposition party, the Congress, in his efforts to usher in a vibrant growth rate, return the glory that once belonged to Bangalore as the primary IT centre of India, and bring some succour to the people of the State, who like other Indians, are plagued by galloping inflation.

JD (S) trounced

Coming to the Congress performance in this election, while many political pundits/analysts are busy blaming the party for allowing the BJP to make a grand debut in the South, much more than the Congress, which by the way, has managed to secure a slightly higher percentage of votes — 34.6 against the BJP’s 33.9 per cent — it is the JD (S) which has been trounced by the electorate of Karnataka.

Let’s not forget that the party which had ruled the State for 20 long months, having won only 58 seats in 2004 — lower than both the BJP (79) and the Congress (65) — has now been reduced to less than half its size, managing only 28 seats.

Clearly its politics of betrayal has not gone down very well with the people of Karnataka.

Looking back

A quick recap of the bizarre developments in Karnataka after the 2004 polls. The Congress, which had not emerged as the single-largest party and had only 65 seats, did quick business with the JD (S).

To form a coalition government with the JD (S), it sacrificed the best man it had for the chief minister’s post in Mr S. M. Krishna, bowing to the dictates of the JD (S) patriarch, Mr Deve Gowda.

This government led by Mr Dharam Singh lasted for only 20 months, and in February 2006, the JD (S) and BJP formed a coalition government. Once again, the dicey concept of revolving chief ministership was applied, and despite being the larger collation partner, the BJP, which had already got the wrong end of such a stick from Ms Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh earlier, agreed to a JD (S) chief minister for the first 20 months.

Amidst dramatic scenes from his father who sang the secular mantra for quite a while, Mr H. D. Kumaraswamy assumed the post of chief minister for the first term of 20 months.

In November 2007, when that time was up, after much humming and hawing, the BJP was allowed to lead the government with Mr Yeddyurappa at the helm, but this government collapsed in a week, with the JD (S) voting against its ally in a confidence vote!

The Congress has actually improved its tally from 65 to 80, but will have to introspect on what it could have done to pick up another 30 seats.

Alliance with the JD (S) would have been suicide as Mr Gowda’s party had first brought down the Dharam Singh government, which had anyway provided mediocre administration in the State, before ending the pact with the BJP.

Also, against projections in some quarters Ms Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party has come a cropper, nipping in the bud theories about the great role she is poised to play at the Centre in the next General Elections.

And the BJP is all set to form the next government in Karnataka with help from independents, and it is hoped it will have a trouble-free five years in power.

Outcome of elections

The most important outcome of this election will be Lok Sabha polls as scheduled and not earlier. A subdued UPA Government will now concentrate on finishing its full term in office, hoping that the next summer might bring better tidings on the global front –— lower crude oil prices, an equity market that has recovered and, once again, become the darling of global investors, a good monsoon that, along with the massive loan waiver, would keep the farmers happy, and a vibrant job market that puts more money in the hands of middle-class Indians and helps them retain a larger share in their pockets, thanks to Mr P. Chidambaram’s latest tax breaks.

It requires a combination of all these magic factors to enable the UPA Government to fight the anti-incumbency factor and return to power. And, of course, alliances. The Congress chief, Ms Sonia Gandhi, will need to walk the extra mile on this one; of course, she did just that last time around, but then she didn’t expect to win!

Shrinking space?

Long years in adversity or the Opposition add their own dose of humility to anybody, political parties not excluded. Nobody has learnt this lesson better than the BJP, which had advanced the Lok Sabha elections in 2004 in the hope the party would pick up more seats along with another stint in power.

The Congress High Command should be smarting at Mr Advani’s words, rightfully spoken, that the Congress space is shrinking at the all-India level. It is losing elections in one State after another and the polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are just around the corner.

Though it desperately hopes that the BJP Governments in these States will be struck by anti-incumbency, one thing is for sure.

The charismatic Mr Modi will be back as the BJP’s star campaigner in these states too, and if his development or Hindutva mantra — or a combination of both — works once again, the die for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls would have been cast.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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