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Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, June 22 The monsoon ‘low’ over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Jharkhand and north Chhattisgarh has weakened on Sunday but the remnant cyclonic circulation is still capable of sustaining widespread rains in the neighbourhood.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that east Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar would continue to receive moderately heavy rains for two more days at the least. East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha too are expected to witness varying wet sessions during the period.

On Sunday, the rain-driving monsoon trough passed through Sriganganagar, Meerut, Shahjahanpur, Faizabad, Patna, Asansol, Kolkata and southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.

The weakening of the ‘low’ over east India will shift forecaster’s attention to the west coast where strengthening of the pressure gradient and cross-equatorial flow over the Arabian Sea has been indicated leading to a possible increase in rainfall. Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka are forecast to receive fairly widespread rains during the next two days.

Significantly, the IMD has maintained its outlook for the formation of a mid-tropospheric cyclone (MTC) over north Arabian Sea, off the Gujarat coast. An MTC is a rare feature of the monsoon that can change the dynamics of rainfall over north Konkan and south Gujarat often with a trail blazing eastward to central India and the southeast coast.

The seas off Konkan and south Gujarat provide the most ideal setting for an MTC to form during an active phase of monsoon from mid-June to July-end. Its genesis usually coincides with the onset/advance of monsoon, or a revival after a prolonged break.

The system gets added vigour when a monsoon depression moves inland from North Bay of Bengal. It has a life ranging from five to seven days, producing heavy to very heavy rainfall along the west coast. The incoming ‘low’/depression from the Bay of Bengal can enhance its staying power.

Thus, an MTC may have a much longer shelf life than a monsoon depression. The MTC and a Bay system feed into each other, getting intensely active to produce a hectic spell all over the west coast, central India and the immediate northwest. The offshore trough running from Gujarat to north Kerala would complete the ensemble.

Meanwhile, international as well as domestic models have indicated the formation of ‘low’ over northwest Bay of Bengal (a likely monsoon depression) during this week. The system is forecast to cross land over the Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu coast and track west-northwest into interior peninsula.

It could revive monsoon activity over the peninsula.

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Rains lift in east, focus shifts to west coast

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