The Hindu Business Line : Bay whirl turns ‘low’, track under scan

Thiruvananthapuram, July 7 Sunday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh concentrated overnight into a monsoon ‘low’ over north Bay of Bengal, promptly setting off another round of heavy rains in east India and the northeast.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put it under watch for signs of intensification. The track it takes for lateral progression over the sea and into the mainland will also be keenly watched.

Initial forecasts are that it would move west-northwest into central India and later to the northwest. The interior peninsula may well have to sit out this time also for that evasive spell of rain, but varying amounts of precipitation have been indicated for the west coast.

This would come about as residual moisture from the Bay-bound feed gets wrung out over the Ghats. Concurrently, a heavy rain belt will hammer it down over the east, northeast, central and northwest, most of which has already received excess precipitation.

GAINS IN CENTRAL

North Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Saurasthra will also make some gains. It is hoped that some rain will find its way into Vidarbha and Marathawada as well, the latter most in the red of all.

IMD has warned that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to fall over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh, West Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Haryana and east Rajasthan. The rain belt will advance into the Gangetic plains and to the northeast during three days from July 10.

Meanwhile, the other upper air cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas persisted on Monday. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and West Madhya Pradesh during the next two days. The heavy rains will later progress into east Rajasthan and Gujarat.

On Monday, the axis of the monsoon trough over land passed through Anoopgarh, Hissar, Shajahanpur, Gaya, Asansol, the centre of the low-pressure area and then southeastward into east-central Bay.

THUNDERSHOWERS

In region-wise forecasts, the IMD said that northwest India would see rain or thundershowers at many places over West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next few days. The wet session will be triggered by a resident cyclonic circulation in cahoots with the Bay ‘low’.

Towards the east, rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa and Jharkhand and at a few places over the rest of the region. In the northeast, many places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura (currently in deficit) will also get some rain during the period.

In the south, rain has been forecast at many places over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal Karnataka and Kerala and at a few places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, south Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep. Hesitant troughing and resultant clouding associated with the Bay system have already translated into locally heavy convective showers in these areas on Monday.

Towards the west, showers will be fairly spread over Konkan, Goa and east Rajasthan. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat state, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

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