The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon set to run last lap across Rajasthan

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls expected over Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and the Northeastern States for four days from the weekend.

Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, July 8 The southwest monsoon is bracing to conquer the last outpost of extreme west Rajasthan in its coverage of the Indian landmass, frenetic to start with but losing direction mid-way through.

The belated activity in Rajasthan is being occasioned by the reinvigorated monsoon easterlies steered by an upper air cyclonic circulation and back-ended by a well-marked ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal.

The seasonal weather system had braved a rather low-key onset phase over the southwest peninsula to gather steam. It managed to race upcountry in record time reaching the farming heartlands in the north and northwest at least two weeks ahead of schedule.

ABRUPT HALT

This was the scenario up till June 16 when, all on a sudden, its progress ground to an abrupt halt half way into Rajasthan. The monsoon has since been seen making an occasional splash over the west coast, but without support from the Bay to take it further forward.

When the Bay chose to act, it was the turn of the west coast (read Arabian Sea) to hide and seek, confining play within the Konkan-Mumbai-south Gujarat belt. The Bay circulations did not find it worth the while venturing out of the seasonal monsoon trough either.

But a few came face-to-face with itinerant western disturbances and their interaction helped spread convective showers into the northwest India and the adjoining north. Organised rainfall associated with monsoon was clearly marked out for its absence.

Pure-play monsoon thus came to be restricted to east India, the northeast, and at times on the west coast. Interior peninsula and the southeast peninsular coast have been largely left out of the rain dynamics, and continue to be in deficit.

WELL-MARKED ‘LOW’

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that Monday’s ‘low’ over the North Bay and adjoining coastal West Bengal and Bangladesh persisted and had become well marked. By Tuesday evening, it had shifted position to over coastal areas of West Bengal and adjoining areas of Orissa, Bangladesh and northwest Bay of Bengal. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa during the next two days.

The system has been forecast to move northwest and undergo another round of intensification. This is expected to bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh and the Northeastern States for four days from the weekend.

A warning valid for Wednesday and Thursday said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over West Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan. Numerical weather prediction models indicate increase in rainfall activity over West Rajasthan during the same period.

WHIRL PERSISTS

The other upper air cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas too persisted on Tuesday. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over southwest Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh during next three days.

On Tuesday, the axis of monsoon trough passed through Anoopgarh, Sikar, Lucknow, Patna, Asansol, the centre of well marked low pressure area and southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal.

In region-wise forecasts for the next four days, the IMD said rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over the northwest outside Punjab where it may be at a few places. In central India, thundershowers are likely at many places over West Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and at a few places over Vidarbha.

East Madhya Pradesh will see rain or thundershowers at a few places over the next two days, which would scale up thereafter. In the south, many places in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, north Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala are expected to receive rain or thundershowers.

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