The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon blues

Without sounding alarmist, it must be stated that all’s not well on the south-west monsoon and agricultural front. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions the country is divided into, as many as 13 have recorded deficient to scanty rains as of July 9, while many subdivisions said to have received ‘normal’ precipitation are actually on the verge of falling into the deficit category. Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are particularly facing acute moisture stress and are in the ‘red’. The all-India area weighted rainfall of 268.5 mm, which is 10 per cent above normal, masks the real picture which is that the spatial distribution of rains so far has been rather uneven. The initial optimism — when the rains reached the capital almost 15 days ahead of the normal date of June 30 — is now giving way to serious concern over the likely behaviour of the monsoon over the next several weeks.

Normally, July is by far the heaviest rainfall month across the country in the June-September monsoon cycle; but even two weeks into the month, we are yet to see robust rainfall activity in many regions. Crops planted in June are now thirsting for more water, while planting activity itself has slowed down considerably, raising the spectre of a mid-season drought and lower overall planted acreage. After mid-July, no significant area expansion in major field crops can be expected. At this point in time, with inflation on a rising trajectory week-after-week and economic activity clearly slowing, sub-par agricultural performance is the last thing the country can afford. Already, the purchasing power in rural areas is considerably eroded because of unaffordable food prices. Despite the record production of various crops for 2007-08 claimed by the government, prices of essential food products are sky high. Various fiscal, monetary and administrative measures taken over the last six months have not yielded desired results.

The government’s ability to impose further restrictions to contain prices is rather limited as it has exhausted most of the weapons in its armoury. In the international market too no significant price relief can be expected in major agricultural commodities — grains, vegetable oils, and so on. The relentless rise in the crude oil market is seen pushing food production and distribution costs higher. A weak rupee is sure to make imports much more expensive. The creeping upside risk to food prices, if aberrant weather continues, cannot be ignored. Whether, amid the fluid political situation, New Delhi is seized of the developing situation and is working towards a contingency, or fallback, plan is unclear. The government is duty-bound to ensure that the food and livelihood needs of the poor are not compromised in this deteriorating situation.

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Poor rainfall threatens kharif sowing in AP
Poor monsoon: KSEB to hold special meeting
PM pins hopes on Govt measures, good monsoon to curb inflation
Disquiet in South drains rain surplus to 10%
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